Seasonal Return of Avian Influenza

As anticipated, avian influenza has returned to commercial turkeys and has impacted the first egg production complex of the fall season.  Effective September 25th, there were twelve outbreaks in the Dakotas and Minnesota involving close to 550,000 growing turkeys and one large egg production complex of 3.1 million hens in Wisconsin.  Concurrently, USDA surveys have detected H5 avian influenza virus with a Eurasian genome in twelve states over the past thirty days.  Of specific concern is the frequency of isolations from black vultures that now appear to be disseminators of the pathogen in addition to migratory waterfowl. 

Although high levels of structural and operational biosecurity are advised, even the most stringent precautions will not provide absolute protection.  Had the U.S. commenced preemptive vaccination of replacement pullets during the first quarter of 2025 during the period of winter losses we would have been in a more favorable position as we enter the fourth quarter of the year with the potential for losses.

On September 19th 2025 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2024, a projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026.

The revised 2025 projection for broiler production is for 47,925 million lbs. (21.785 million metric tons) up 2.0 percent from 2024. USDA projected per capita consumption of 103.0 lbs. (46.8 kg.) for 2025, up 1.9 percent from 2024. Exports will attain 6,506 million lbs. (2.957 million metric tons), 1.6 percent below the previous year.

The 2026 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 48,300 million lbs. (21.955 million metric tons) up 0.8 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 0.2 lb. to 103.2 lbs. (46.9 kg). Exports will be 1.6 percent higher compared to 2025 at 6,610 million lbs. (3.005 million metric tons), equivalent to 13.7 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 19th 2025

The September USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2025 including annual production of 4,837 million lbs. (2.199 million metric tons), down 5.5 percent from 2024. Consumption in 2025 is projected to be 13.1 lbs. (6.0kg.) per capita, down by 5.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will attain 417 million lbs. (189,500 metric tons) in 2025. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2025 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.

The 2026 forecast for turkey production is 5,040 million lbs. (2.291 million metric tons) up an optimistic 4.2 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 2.3 percent to 13.4 lbs. (6.1 kg). Exports will be 4.3 percent higher than in 2025 to 435 million lbs. (197,728 metric tons) equivalent to 8.6 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

OVERVIEW

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-July 2025 attained 1,768,136 metric tons, 7.0 percent lower than in January-July 2024 (1,900,254 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports increased by 0.5 percent to $2,654 million ($2,642 million).

Total export volume of turkey products during January-July 2025 attained 104,448 metric tons, 15.6 percent less than in January-July 2024 (123,778 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports increased by 12.9 percent to $316 million ($368 million).

Average unit price attained by the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. To increase sales volume and value the U.S. industry will have to become more customer-centric offering value-added presentations with attributes required by importers. Whether this will increase margins is questionable given that leg quarters are regarded as a by-product of broiler production. A more profitable long-term strategy for the U.S. industry would be to develop products using dark meat to compete with and displace pork and beef in the domestic retail and institutional markets. Due to a shortage and hence high price for beef presentations this opportunity is now evident.

HPAI is now accepted to be  panornitic affecting the poultry meat industries of six continents with seasonal and sporadic outbreaks. The incidence rate and location of cases in the U.S. has limited the eligibility for export from many plants depending on restrictions imposed by importing nations. Incident cases in the U.S. have now resumed after a three month hiatus but a resurgence is anticipated during the Fall.

Uncertainty surrounding tariff policy is an added complication potentially impacting export volume in 2025. In the event of reduced exports, leg quarters would be diverted to the domestic market resulting in a depression in average value derived from a processed bird.

To offset an anticipated decline in exports of U.S. agricultural products the USDA will make available $285 million during 2026 for trade promotion including trade reciprocity missions and credit guarantees under the GSM-102 program.

EXPORT VOLUMES AND PRICES FOR BROILER MEAT

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports during January-July 2025 compared with the corresponding months during 2024:-

                  COMPARISON OF U.S. CHICKEN AND TURKEY EXPORTS

                                    JANUARY-JULY 2025 COMPARED TO 2024

BROILER EXPORTS

Total broiler parts, predominantly leg quarters but including feet, exported during January-July 2025 compared with the corresponding months in 2024 declined by 7.0 percent in volume but value was up 0.5 percent. Unit value was 8.0 percent higher to $1,501 per metric ton.

During 2024 exports attained 3,251,000 metric tons valued at $4,689 million, down 10.5 percent in volume and down 1.1 percent in value compared to 2023. Unit value was up 10.7 percent to $1,442 per metric ton

Broiler imports in 2025 are projected to attain an inconsequential 67,000 metric tons (134 million lbs.) compared to 82,000 metric tons (180,000 million lbs.) in 2024

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 51.1 percent of shipments during January-July 2025. The top ten importers comprised 66.5 percent of the total volume reflecting concentration among the significant importing nations.

Eighth-ranked China declined 51.9 percent in volume to 50,717 tons and concurrently by 29.8 percent in value to $165 million over the first seven months of 2025 compared to the corresponding period in 2024. Unit value increased by 45.6 percent to $3,246 per metric ton reflecting the high proportion of feet in consignments

Nations gaining in volume compared to the corresponding period in 2024 (with the percentage change indicated) in descending order of volume with ranking indicated by numeral were:-

3. Taiwan, (+8%); 4. Philippines, (+43%); 5. Canada, (+22%); 10. Haiti, (+31%);          11. Ghana, (+24%); 12, Dominican Rep., (+1%) and 16. Congo-Kinshasa), (+171%)

Losses during January-July 2025 offset the gains in exports with declines for:-

1. Mexico, (-2%); 2. Cuba, (-8%); 6. Guatemala, (-1%); 7. Viet Nam, (-20);                     8. China, (-52%); 9. Angola, (-23%); 12. UAE, (-33%); 14. Georgia, (-4%) and          Hong Kong, (-44%).

TURKEY EXPORTS

The volume of turkey meat exported during January-July 2025 declined by 15.6 percent to 104,448 metric tons from January-July 2024 but value was 13.6 percent higher at $416 million. Average unit value was 34.0 percent higher at $3,983 per metric ton.

Imports of turkey products attained 15,000 metric tons (33 million lbs.) in 2024 with a similar projection for 2025.

It is important to recognize that exports of chicken and turkey meat products to our USMCA partners amounted to $1,264 million in 2021, $1,647 million during 2022, $1,696 in 2023 and $1,204 million over the first seven-months of 2025. It will be necessary for all three parties to the USMCA to respect the terms of the Agreement in good faith since punitive action against Mexico or Canada on issues unrelated to poultry products will result in reciprocal action by our trading partners to the possible detriment of U.S. agriculture. This is especially important as all three nations have recently elected chief executives and administrations.

 The emergence of H5N1strain avian influenza virus with a Eurasian genome in migratory waterfowl in all four Flyways of the U.S. during 2022 was responsible for sporadic outbreaks of avian influenza in backyard flocks and serious commercial losses in egg-producing complexes and turkey flocks but to a lesser extent in broilers. The probability of additional outbreaks of HPAI over succeeding weeks appears likely with recorded outbreaks in turkey farms in ND, SD and MN. Consistent with fall migration of waterfowl. Incident cases affecting egg-production and turkey flocks will be a function of shedding by migratory and domestic birds and possibly free-living mammals or even extension from dairy herds. Protection of commercial flocks at present relies on the intensity and efficiency of biosecurity including wild-bird laser repellant installations, representing investment in structural improvements and operational procedures. These measures are apparently inadequate to provide absolute protection, suggesting the need for preventive vaccination in high-risk areas for egg-producing, breeder and turkey flocks.

The application of restricted county-wide embargos following the limited and regional cases of HPAI in broilers with restoration of eligibility 28 days after decontamination has supported export volume for the U.S. broiler industry. Exports of turkey products were more constrained with plants processing turkeys in Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wisconsin and Iowa impacted.  The future challenge will be to gain acceptance for limited preventive vaccination of laying hens and turkeys in high-risk areas accompanied by intensive surveillance. It is now accepted that H5N1 HPAI is panornitic in distribution among commercial and migratory birds across six continents. The infection is now seasonally or regionally endemic in many nations with intensive poultry production, suggesting that vaccination will have to be accepted among trading partners as an adjunct to control measures in accordance with WOAH policy.

The live-bird market system supplying metropolitan areas, the presence of numerous backyard flocks, gamefowl and commercial laying hens allowed outside access, potentially in contact with migratory and now some resident bird species, all represent an ongoing danger to the entire U.S. commercial industry. The live-bird segments of U.S. poultry production represent a risk to the export eligibility of the broiler and turkey industries notwithstanding WOAH compartmentalization for breeders and regionalization (zoning) to counties or states for commercial production.

Over the past four weeks USDA-FAS has released GAIN reports detailing broiler production, trade and domestic consumption for six nations.

The following table projects data for the industries in the six nations covering 2026

*Thousand metric tons

National RTC Production, Trade and Consumption Data

Broiler Chick Placements August-September-July 2025.

According to the September 24th 2025 USDA Broiler Hatchery Report, 1.239 million eggs were set over five weeks extending from August 23rd 2025 through September 20th 2025 inclusive. This was three percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2024.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the five-week period amounted to 971.0 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.7 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.94 million chicks placed per week and 1.84 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and within the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2024 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 4th through September 20th 2025 chick placements attained 7.32 billion, up one percent from the corresponding week in 2024.

According to the September 22nd 2025 edition of USDA Chickens and Eggs, pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during August 2025 amounted to 8.24 million, down 5.3 percent (0.46 million pullet chicks) from August 2024 and 0.7 percent (61,000 pullet chicks) less than the previous month of July 2025. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 59.94 million on September 1st 2025, 2.5 percent (1.56 million hens) down from September 1st 2024 and 0.3 percent (180,000 hens) lower than August 1st 2025.

Broiler Production September 2025

As documented in the September 25th 2025 USDA Weekly Poultry Slaughter Reports for the processing week ending September 20th 2025, 175.0 million broilers were processed at 6.70 lbs. live. This was 2.5 percent more than the 170.8 million processed during the corresponding week in September 2024. Broilers processed in 2025 to date amounted to 6,242 million, 2.1 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2024.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week in September was 903.0 million lbs. (410,462 metric tons).  This was 3.8 percent more than the 870.0 million lbs. during the corresponding week in September 2024. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2025 to date RTC broiler production attained 31,704 million lbs. (15.078 million metric tons). This quantity was 3.5 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2024.

The USDA posted live-weight data for the past week ending September 20th and YTD 2025 including:-

September 2025 Frozen Inventory

According to the September 25th 2025 USDA Cold Storage Report, issued monthly, stocks of broiler products as of August 31st 2025 compared to August 31st 2024 showed differences with respect to the following categories:-

• Total Chicken category attained 790.9 million lbs. (359.5 thousand metric tons) corresponding to approximately one week of production based on recent weekly RTC output. The August 2025 inventory was up 4.3 percent compared to 758,551 million lbs. (344.8 thousand metric tons) on August 31st 2024 and up 1.9 percent from the previous month of July 2025.

• Leg Quarters were down 9.0 percent to 56.9 million lbs. compared to August 31st 2024 consistent with the data on exports. Inventory was up 2.0 percent from July 31st 2025. Given the trend in inventory of leg quarters it is evident that this category continues to be shipped in varying quantities as the principal (96 percent) chicken export product to a number of nations with the top five importers representing 51.1 percent of the January-July 2025 export total of 1,768,136 metric tons of chicken parts. The top ten importing nations represented 66.5 percent of broiler exports with Mexico was the leading importer followed by Cuba  Taiwan, the Philippines, and Canada.

• The Breasts and Breast Meat category was up 17.1 percent from August 31st 2024 to 240.5 million lbs. indicating a relatively lower domestic consumer demand for this category despite concern over inflation in the cost of alternative proteins. August 31st 2025 stock was 1.1 percent lower than on July 31st 2025. The trend through the first eight months of 2025 suggests stable but low retail and food service demand for the white meat category.  This is despite promotion of chicken sandwiches and wraps by QSRs in the face of a higher cost for beef coupled with an increasing pattern of eat-at-home consumption.

• Total inventory of dark meat (drumsticks legs, thighs and thigh quarters but excluding leg quarters) on August 31st 2025 decreased 2.9 percent from August 31st 2024 to 60.9 million lbs. This difference suggests an increase in domestic demand for lower-priced dark meat against the prevailing price of white chicken meat. Higher prices for competitive proteins offer an opportunity to increase domestic demand for this category with innovative product development and promotion.

• Wings showed a 7.2 percent decrease from August 2024, contributing to a stock of 55.4 million lbs. Inventory of wings was 5.7 percent higher compared to July 2025. Movement in stock over the past 12 months has demonstrated lower demand for this category due in part from competitive “boneless wings.” Increased consumption traditionally associated with significant sports events including the College and Super Bowls reduced the volumes of storage in January and February 2025. The progressive increase in unit price during 2024 plateaued in 2025 due to consumer fatigue and competition from competing protein snacks despite continued interest in professional and collegiate football.

• The inventory of Paws and Feet was 4.7 percent higher than on August 31st 2024 to 29.9 million lbs. Stock was was 9.6 percent higher than on July 31st 2025. Prior to the April 2020 Phase-1 Trade Agreement approximately half of the shipments of paws and feet destined for Hong Kong were landed and transshipped to the Mainland, a trend that is re-emerging.
• The Other category comprising 330.0 million lbs. on August 31st 2025 was down 1.0 percent from August 2024 but represented a substantial 41.7 percent of inventory. The high proportion of the Other category suggests further classification or re-allocation by USDA to the designated major categories.

August 2025 Processed Broiler Production

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on September 25th 2025 covered August 2025 comprising 21 working days, one less than August 2024. The following values were documented for the month:-

• A total of 797.2 million broilers were processed in August 2025, down 17.1 million or 2.1 percent from August 2024;
• Total live weight in August 2025 was 5,304 million lbs., down 38.7 million lbs. or 0.7 percent from August 2024;
• Unit live weight in August 2025 was 6.65 lbs., up 0.09lb. (1.4 percent) from August 2024.
• RTC in August 2025 attained 4,021 million lbs., down 17.8 million lbs. or 0.4 percent from August 2004.
• WOG yield in August 2025 was 75.8 percent, up from 75.6 percent in August 2024.
• The proportion marketed as chilled in August 2025 comprised 93.4 percent of RTC output compared to 93.6 percent in August 2024.
• Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.19 percent during August 2025 unchanged from 0.19 percent in August 2024.
• Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.43 percent during August 2025 compared to 0.44 percent in August 2024. 

Comments

Mexico has recognized the OIE principle of regionalization after intensive negotiations between SENASICA and the U.S. counterpart, USDA-APHIS assisted by USAPEEC. Provided importing nations adhere to OIE guidelines on regionalization, localized outbreaks of avian influenza or possibly Newcastle disease will affect exports only from states or counties with outbreaks in commercial flocks. The response of China, Japan and some other nations is less predictable with bans placed on a nationwide or statewide basis. The response by China to outbreaks is influenced more by self-interest than considerations of scientific fact or international trade obligations. Other importing nations have confined restrictions to counties following the WOAH principle of regionalization. The challenge facing the U.S. as the second largest exporting nation after Brazil, will be to gain acceptance for controlled vaccination against HPAI in specific industry sectors and regions with appropriate surveillance and certification to the satisfaction of importing nations.

According to a September 22nd release, USPOULTRY and the associated Foundation have suggested topics in their solicitation for research funding.  The Board Research Initiative has highlighted the following diseases:-

• Control of histomoniasis (“blackhead”) in turkeys and chickens

• Control of turkey coronavirus (TCV)

• Developing effective vaccination strategies for avian metapneumovirus

Requests for proposals released by USPOULTRY and also the USDA reflect emerging and ongoing diseases and conditions of clinical and economic importance in the poultry industry.

If the Q2 results of Beyond Meat (BYND) released on August 8th are any indication, the alt meat market is floundering and survives only by regular infusions of funding by venture capital firms.  For the second quarter ending June 28th, BYND posted net revenue of $75.0 million, down 19.6 percent from the corresponding quarter in fiscal 2024.  Net loss increased by three percent to $34.9 million.  Lower revenue was attributed to diminished volume in both domestic and international markets but specifically in the consumer segments. Gross margin declined from 14.7 percent in Q2 2024 to 11.5 percent for the most recent quarter.  Trailing twelve-month operating margin was -44 percent and profit margin, -50 percent. It is noted that inventory valued at $110,000 represents 146 percent of Q2 sales. 

Among other expenses, Beyond Meat persists in spending an inordinate amount on research and development with the most recent quarter corresponding to 7.7 percent of revenue. This would not appear out of place with a high tech or pharmaceutical company.  The balance sheet shows assets of $691.7 million offset by long term debt of $1,257 million.  Free cash flow has consistently declined and the company burnt through $125 million over the past 12 months. 

Following downgrades from major analysts, BYND has fallen from a 52-week high of $7.60 to a low of $2.22 with a 50-day moving average of $2.88.  As of August 29th, 42 percent of the float was short.  Failure to either achieve or improve profitability is reflected in a decline in market cap from $441 million in mid-September 2024 to $218 million during the week of September 23rd 2025.

CEO Ethan Brown announced layoffs that are expected to save up to $7 million annually in the following fiscal year (if there is one for BYND) but will incur a $1.3 million charge.  It is not possible to restore profitability with an eroding market simply by reducing costs.  The decision to eliminate “Meat” from the name of the company to simply Beyond, is akin to moving deck chairs around on the Titanic. Interestingly Josh Tetrick in his ongoing shell game of names for his companies also uses a universal appellation of Just.

Basically, attempting to sell ersatz meat products at prices higher than the items they wish to replace coupled with inferior organoleptic properties is not a good hand to play.  John Boken newly appointed Chief Transformation Officer from turnaround company Alixpartners LLP will not be able to reverse the downward slide.  The obvious question is how Beyond Meat and presumably its major competitors will survive as independent entities. Many companies have withdrawn from the market or have hidden their losses by consolidating divisions as with Maple Leaf Foods.

At the end of the day if prospects for plant-based alt meat are dismal, investors will undergo an even shorter haircut by funding cell-cultured substitutes.

In reviewing the available animal-sourced protein, beef is currently expensive and will remain so given the need to reestablish the national herd and to combat New-world screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) that has interrupted importation of live cattle from Mexico. Consumers have continued to purchase pork but chicken remains the protein of choice. Broiler meat will comprise 45 percent of domestic red meat and poultry RTC production in 2026 followed by pork at 26 percent and beef attaining 24 percent of U.S. output.