Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019

07/17/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data on July17th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (revised) and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the June 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 1.2 percent compared to 2018 to 19.60 million metric tons (43,106 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was unchanged from the June report at 42.2 kg. (92.9 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.6 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.244 million metric tons (7,137 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that the USMCA concluded in September 2018 will be approved by Congress and by the legislatures of Canada and Mexico by the end of the third quarter.

Turkey production will remain almost unchanged in 2019 compared to 2018 at 2.666 million metric tons (5,865 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain at 7.3 kg. (16.1 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will be 0.285 million metric tons (627 million lbs.).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels, live weights and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA, if ratified by the legislatures of the U.S and Canada, will avert tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019 (forecast)

% Difference 2020 2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.595

+1.2 19.705

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

42.2

+0.7 42.1

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.244

+1.0 3.295

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.6

-0.6 16.7

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.666

-0.2 2.682

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.1

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.285

+2.5 0.286

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

10.7

+2.9 10.7

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -July17th 2019


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #590 July 11th 2019

07/11/2019

OVERVIEW

The July 11th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting completed at 83.6 million acres (81.8 million in 2018) and is up 1.4 percent from the June WASDE. In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 79.3 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018) with the reduction due to uncertainty over the export market.

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 166.0 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018) and unchanged from the June WASDE despite late planting and delayed development. Soybean yield was projected at 48.5 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018), 5 percent lower than in the June WASDE projection. These values presume suitable growing conditions, the time of sowing and standard rates of germination.

The July USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 20.0 percent percent from the June WASDE to 2,010 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 23.9 percent lower at 795 million bushels. Ending stocks for both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations. It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China followed by restoration of exports to that Nation, a prospect that appears in question given lower demand from China and the failure to commit to purchases following the June meeting between President Trump and Premier Xi at the G-20 Meeting in Osaka.

 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-May 2019.

07/06/2019

Export data for the first five months of 2019 indicate a moderate increase in export of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from this and previous comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price. This is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

Total broiler exports for the period attained 1,309,989 metric tons, 1.6 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (1,289,344 metric tons). Total value of exports declined by 6.4 percent to $1,253 million ($1,338 million).

During January-May 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,351,487 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $1,248 million with a weighted average unit value of $923 per metric ton, 9.2 percent lower in value compared to the first five months of 2018 ($1,017 per metric ton).


 

USDA Grain Stocks Report

06/26/2019

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on June 28th documents storage of commodities produced in the U.S. classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of corn and soybeans, the two crops relevant to poultry production were:-

Corn stocks in all positions on June 1st, 2019 totaled 5.20 billion bushels, down two percent from June 1, 2018. Of the total stocks, 2.95 billion bushels (56.7 percent) are stored on farms, up seven percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.25 billion bushels, (43.3 percent) are down 12 percent from a year ago. The March–through May 2019 indicated disappearance was 3.41 billion bushels, compared with 3.59 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1st, 2019 totaled 1.79 billion bushels, up 47 percent from June 1, 2018. On-farm stocks totaled 730 million bushels (40.7 percent), up 94 percent from a year ago. This indicates that farmers were holding 2018 soybeans in anticipation of a resolution of the trade dispute with China and resumption of exports. Off-farm stocks, at 1.06 billion bushels (59.3 percent), are up 26 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March through May 2019 quarter totaled 937 million bushels, up five percent from the same period a year earlier.


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019.

06/17/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data on June 17th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (revised) and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the May 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 1.0 percent compared to 2018 to 19.56 million metric tons (43,034 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption was increased for 2019 from the May report to 42.2 kg. (92.9 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.5 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.221 million metric tons (7,087 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that the USMCA concluded in September 2018 will be approved by Congress and by the legislatures of Canada and Mexico this year.

Turkey production will remain almost unchanged in 2019 compared to 2018 at 2.670 million metric tons (5,876 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain at 7.3 kg. (16.1 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will be the same as 2018 at 0.278 million metric tons (612 million lbs).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels, live weights and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA, if ratified by the legislatures of all three nations, will avert tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019 (forecast)

% Difference 2020 2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.561

+1.0 19.705

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

42.2

+0.7 42.1

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.212

3.221

+0.3 3.295

Proportion of production (%)

16.6

16.5

-0.6 16.7

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.671

2.671

0 2.682

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.277

0.278

+0.4 0.286

Proportion of production (%)

10.3

10.4

+1.0 10.7

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -June 17th 2019


 

 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane