Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #587 April 9th 2019

04/09/2019

OVERVIEW

The April 9th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting intentions to be 81.7 million acres (81.8 million in 2018). In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 88.1 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018). There was apparently no change due to recent Midwest flooding or the forecast for wet conditions from snowmelt prior to planting.

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 176.4 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was projected at 51.6 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018). These values presume suitable planting conditions, time of sowing and standard rates of germination.

The April USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 10.9 percent to 2,035 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 0.5 percent lower at 895 million bushels with minimal effect on CME price quotations subsequent to the noon release of the April WASDE.

It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China followed by restoration of exports to that Nation.


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January 2019.

03/29/2019

Export data for January 2019 indicate a moderate increase in export of broiler parts in comparison to January 2018 attaining 263237 metric tons, 5.9 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (248,622 metric tons). Total value declined by 6.1 percent to $233 million ($248 million) due to an 11.2 percent lower unit value from $997 per metric ton in January 2018 to $885 per metric ton in January 2019.

For January 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 276,758 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $255.4 million with a weighted average unit value of $900 per metric ton, 4.0 percent lower in value compared to January 2018 ($1,047 per m. ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2018 compared with 2017 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 96.3%; Unit value $846 per metric ton ($971)

  • Prepared chicken 2.8%; Unit value $3,528 per metric ton ($3,388)

  • Whole chicken 0.9%; Unit value $981 per metric ton ($1,053)

    The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports in 2018 with corresponding figures for 2017:-

     

PRODUCT

January 2018

January 2019

Difference

Broiler Meat

     

Volume (Metric tons)

248,622

263,237

+14,615 (+5.9%)

Value ($ million)

248

233

-15 (-6.1%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

997

885

-112 (-11.2%)

Turkey Meat

     

Volume (Metric tons)

22,244

20,511

-1,733 (-7.8%)

Value ($ million)

49

45

-3 (-6.1%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

2,742

2,193

-549 (-20.1%)

Chicken Paws

     

Volume (Metric tons)

11,976

8,729

-3,247 (-27.1%)

Value ($ million)

19.4

11.3

-8.1 (-41.8%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

1,620

1,294

-326 (-20.1%)

COMPARISON OF U.S. POULTRY MEAT EXPORT DATA FOR

JANUARY 2019 COMPARED TO JANUARY 2018


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2018 and 2019.

03/14/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data for broilers and turkeys for 2017 (actual), 2018 (actual) and 2019 (forecast) respectively on March 14th 2019.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the December 2018 report, the last issued before the Federal shutdown. Production in 2019 will increase by 1.3 percent compared to 2018 to 19.591 million metric tons (43,100 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption was increased from the December report by 0.2 percent for 2019 corresponding to 42.0 kg. (92.4 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.6 percent of RTC production attaining 3.248 million metric tons (7,145 million lbs.) and is based on the presumption that the recently concluded USMCA will be approved by Congress and by the legislatures of Canada and Mexico.

Turkey production will decrease by 0.6 percent in 2019 to 2.661 million metric tons (5,854 million lbs.) RTC, following a revision of 2018 production now projected to be 2.671 million metric tons. (5,890 million lbs.). Per capita consumption will attain 7.2 kg. (15.9 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection despite promotions and introduction of further processed items. Export volume will be 0.7 percent higher at 0.277 million metric tons (610 million lbs. ).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2018 prices, egg settings, poult placements and disposal of hen poults in 2019 to date, weekly production levels and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA, if ratified by the legislatures of all three nations, will avert tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2017 (actual)

2018 (actual)

2019 % Difference (forecast) 2018 to 2019

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

18.937

19.334

19.590 +1.3

Consumption (kg per capita)

41.3

41.7

42.0 +0.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.087

3.238

3.248 +1.3

Proportion of production (%)

16.3

16.7

16.6 -0.6

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.718

2.671

2.661 -0.6

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.4

7.2 -1.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.282

0.275

0.277 +0.7

Proportion of production (%)

10.3

10.3

10.3 nil

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -March 14 th 2019


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #586 MARCH 8th 2019

03/10/2019

OVERVIEW

The March 8th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting intentions to be 81.7 million acres (81.8 million in 2018). In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 88.1 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018).

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 176.4 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was projected at 51.6 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018).

The March USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 5.8 percent to 1,835 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 1.0 percent lower at 900 million bushels with minimal effect on CME price quotations subsequent to the noon release of the March WASDE.

It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China followed by restoration of exports to that Nation.


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for 2018.

03/09/2019

Export data for 2018 indicate a moderate increase in export of broiler parts in comparison to 2017. Total broiler exports for 2018 attained 3,206,324 metric tons, 4.1 percent more than the corresponding period in 2017 (3,080,395 metric tons). Total value improved by 0.2 percent to $3,153 million ($3,146 million).

During 2018 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 3,447,898 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $3,571 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,036 per metric ton, 4.1 percent higher in value compared to 2017 ($1,067 per m. ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2018 compared with 2017 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 96.0%; Unit value $965 per metric ton ($995)

  • Prepared chicken 2.7%; Unit value $3,553 per metric ton ($3,540)

  • Whole chicken 1.3%; Unit value $1,005 per metric ton ($1,076)

The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports in 2018 with corresponding figures for 2017:-


 

 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane