Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #591 August 12th 2019

08/12/2019

OVERVIEW

The August 12th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data with progressive updating as the season has advanced. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting completed in June at 90.0 million acres (81.8 million in 2018) down 1.9 percent from the July WASDE. In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 75.9 million acres, down 4.3 percent from the July estimate (88.3 million acres in 2018)

The USDA projected corn yield was raised to 169.5 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018) despite late planting and delayed development. Soybean yield was unchanged from July at 48.5 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018). Yield values presume suitable growing conditions until harvest.

The July USDA projection of ending stock for corn was increased by 8.6 percent from the July WASDE to 2,101 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 5.0 percent lower than the July estimate at 755 million bushels. Ending stocks for both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations. It is presumed that projections are based on the presumption that there will be no settlement of the trade dispute with China in 2019. China failed to commit to purchases following the June meeting between President Trump and Premier Xi at the G-20 Meeting in Osaka and banned all agricultural imports from the U.S. following the announcement of a 10 percent tariff, effective September 1st on imports from China valued at $300 billion in 2019 and not already subject to duty.

CORN

The corn harvest for 2019 documented in the July WASDE Report is projected to be 13,901 million bushels consistent with acreage planted, crop progress and estimated yield. The projection for 2019 can be compared to the 2018 harvest of 14,420 million bushels and is down 8.2 percent from the 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The "Ethanol and Byproducts" category was lowered from July to 5,475 m. bushels despite the prospect of year-round use of E-15. Exports were lowered to 2,050 million bushels based on competition from Brazil and Argentine and increased World domestic coarse grain production relative to demand. The "Feed and Residual" category was retained at 5,175 million bushels. Ending stocks increased by 8.5 percent to 2,181 m. bushels. The projected USDA farm price was estimated at 360 cents per bushel down 10 cents from the July WASDE projection. At 13H00 on August 12th after release of the WASDE the CME quotations for September 2019 and December 2019 corn were 385 cents and 393 cents per bushel respectively.

August 2019 WASDE #591 ESTIMATES FOR THE 2019 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area

82.0 m acres

(90.0 m. acres planned, corresponding to 91.1% of are harvested)

Yield

169.5 bushels per acre

(was 175.4 bushels per acre in 2017, 178.9 bushels per acre 2018)

Beginning Stocks

2,360 m. bushels

 

Production

13,901 m. bushels

 

Imports

50 m. bushels

 

Total Supply

16.311 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

Feed & Residual

5,175 m. bushels

31.7%

Food & Seed

1,430 m bushels

8.7%

Ethanol & Byproducts

5,475 m. bushels

33.6%

Domestic Use

12,080 m. bushels

74.0%

Exports

2,050 m. bushels

12.6%

Ending Stocks

2,181 m. bushels

13.4%

Stock-to-domestic use proportion

18.0%

(Was 16.6% in the July 2019 WASDE Report)

Average Farm Price: $3.60 per bushel. (Down 10 cents per bushel compared to the July 2019 WASDE Report)

SOYBEANS and SOYBEAN MEAL

USDA projected the 2019 soybean crop to be 3,684 million bushels, 7.3 percent lower than the July estimate, based on a yield of 48.5 bushels per acre from a 4.3 percent lower area to be harvested. Use parameters were essentially unchanged from the July 2019 WASDE Report with crushings at 2,115 m. tons. Projected exports were lowered to 1,775 million bushels, presumably without anticipating resolution of the trade conflict with China in 2019. The export projection appears speculative given that negotiations have ceased and that China has imposed a complete ban on importation of U.S. agricultural products. This nation is usually responsible for imports equivalent to 25 percent of U.S. production.

Ending stocks were adjusted down 5.0 percent to 755 million bushels from 795 million bushels. The USDA projection of the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2019 harvest is 840 cents per bushel, unchanged from the July WASDE estimate. At 13H00 on August 12th CME quotations for soybeans for August 2019 and September 2019 delivery were 862 cents and 868 cents per bushel respectively.

Projected output of soybean meal was unchanged from the July 2019 WASDE at 49.7 million tons. Domestic use was reduced to 36.5 million tons. Exports were increased to 13.7 million tons despite an uncertain trade environment. The USDA retained the price of soybean meal at $300 per ton from the July WASDE Report. At 13H00 on August 12th CME quotations for August and September 2019 deliveries of soybean meal were both $293 and $294 respectively.

AUGUST 2019 WASDE #591 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2019 SOYBEAN HARVEST AND SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION:


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-June 2019

08/09/2019

Export data for the first half of 2019 indicates a moderate increase in export of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from this and previous comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price. This is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 90 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

Total broiler exports for the period attained 1,562,922 metric tons, 1.0 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (1,458,159 metric tons). Total value of exports declined by 4.6 percent to $1,529 million ($1,603 million).

During January-June 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,678,408 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $1,701 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,013 per metric ton, 6.7 percent lower in value compared to the first six months of 2018 ($1,086 per metric ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-June by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2019 compared with 2018 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 96.2%; Unit value $944 per metric ton ($1,014)

  • Prepared chicken 2.6%; Unit value $3,550 per metric ton ($3,535)

  • Whole chicken 1.2%; Unit value $1,038 per metric ton ($1,065)

    The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports in January-June 2019 with corresponding figures for 2018:-

 

PRODUCT

JAN-JUNE 2018

JAN-JUNE 2019

DIFFERENCE

Broiler Meat

     

Volume (metric tons)

1,548,159

1,562,922

+14,763 (+1.0%)

Value ($ millions)

1,603

1,529

-74 (-4.6%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

1,035

978

-57 (-5.5%)

Turkey Meat

     

Volume (metric tons)

135,975

141,698

+5,723 (+4.2%)

Value ($ millions)

304

311

+7 (+2.3%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

2,225

2,150

-75 (-3.4%)

Chicken Paws

     

Volume (metric tons)

81,200

85,942

+4,742 (+5.8%)

Value ($ millions)

130

108

-22 (-16.9%)

Unit value ($/m. ton)

1,601

1,257

-344 (-21.5%)

 

COMPARISON OF U.S. POULTRY MEAT EXPORT DATA FOR JAN-JUNE 2019 COMPARED TO JAN-JUNE 2018

EXPORTS OF BROILER PARTS JAN.-JUNE 2018

Total broiler parts exports during the first half of 2019 compared with the corresponding period in 2018 increased by 1.0 percent in volume but declined 4.6 percent in value. Unit value decreased 5.5 percent from $1,035 per metric ton to $978 per metric ton.

The U.S. broiler industry sells mostly leg quarters, an undifferentiated commodity, in a relatively static and price-sensitive market against competition from other exporters and the domestic production in importing nations. The gain in value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the currencies of Brazil, Argentina and Thailand adversely impacts competitiveness.

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 45.5 percent of shipments during the first six months of 2019. The top ten importers contributed 63.8 percent of the total volume.

Mexico was the largest importer of broiler meat from the U.S. during the six-month period with a volume of 328,505 metric tons representing 21.0 percent of volume and 19.0 percent of total value at a unit price of $885 per metric ton. Unit value during June 2019 rose 23.1 percent to $1,002 per m. ton compared with June 2018. Despite a 0.3 percent lower volume total value increased by 23.5 percent.

Taiwan was the 2nd ranked broiler meat importer receiving 118,647 metric tons representing 7.6 percent of volume and 6.5 percent of value with a unit price of $840 per ton. Taiwan decreased purchases by 19.8 percent in June 2019 compared to 2018 resulting in Taiwan falling to 5 th rank among importers during the month.

Cuba continued as the 3rd ranked importer during Jan.-June 2019 with 7.5 percent of volume (118,647 metric tons) but 6.0 percent of value ($91.5 million) attributed to the product mix with a unit price of $780 per metric ton. Cuba reduced imports by 6.5 percent in June 2019 (21,401 metric tons) compared to June 2018 but retained 2nd rank among destinatio

 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019

07/17/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data on July17th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (revised) and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the June 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 1.2 percent compared to 2018 to 19.60 million metric tons (43,106 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was unchanged from the June report at 42.2 kg. (92.9 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.6 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.244 million metric tons (7,137 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that the USMCA concluded in September 2018 will be approved by Congress and by the legislatures of Canada and Mexico by the end of the third quarter.

Turkey production will remain almost unchanged in 2019 compared to 2018 at 2.666 million metric tons (5,865 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain at 7.3 kg. (16.1 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will be 0.285 million metric tons (627 million lbs.).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels, live weights and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA, if ratified by the legislatures of the U.S and Canada, will avert tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019 (forecast)

% Difference 2020 2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.595

+1.2 19.705

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

42.2

+0.7 42.1

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.244

+1.0 3.295

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.6

-0.6 16.7

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.666

-0.2 2.682

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.1

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.285

+2.5 0.286

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

10.7

+2.9 10.7

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -July17th 2019


 

USDA Grain Stocks Report

06/26/2019

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on June 28th documents storage of commodities produced in the U.S. classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of corn and soybeans, the two crops relevant to poultry production were:-

Corn stocks in all positions on June 1st, 2019 totaled 5.20 billion bushels, down two percent from June 1, 2018. Of the total stocks, 2.95 billion bushels (56.7 percent) are stored on farms, up seven percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.25 billion bushels, (43.3 percent) are down 12 percent from a year ago. The March–through May 2019 indicated disappearance was 3.41 billion bushels, compared with 3.59 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1st, 2019 totaled 1.79 billion bushels, up 47 percent from June 1, 2018. On-farm stocks totaled 730 million bushels (40.7 percent), up 94 percent from a year ago. This indicates that farmers were holding 2018 soybeans in anticipation of a resolution of the trade dispute with China and resumption of exports. Off-farm stocks, at 1.06 billion bushels (59.3 percent), are up 26 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March through May 2019 quarter totaled 937 million bushels, up five percent from the same period a year earlier.


 

 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane