Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019.

11/15/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on November 15th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (revised) and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the October 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 2.7 percent compared to 2018 to 19.88 million metric tons (43,738 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was increased 2.6 percent from the October report to 43.1 kg. (94.7 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.1 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.200 million metric tons (7,040 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that failure to ratify the USMCA, (concluded in September 2018), by both the U.S. Congress and by the Parliament of Canada before the end of 2019 will not impact exports to our NAFTA neighbors. The projection apparently does not take into account the prospect of renewed exports to China.

Turkey production will increase fractionally (0.2 percent) in 2019 compared to 2018 to 2.677 million metric tons (5,889 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain at 7.3 kg. (16.0 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection from 2018 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will remain at 0.290 million metric tons (637 million lbs.).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 and 2020 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels, live weights and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the USMCA signed in September 2018, will not be ratified by the legislatures of the U.S and Canada in 2019, but NAFTA partners will not increase tariffs. In this event market share in Mexico will be retained despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

The projections do not allow for emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvNCD.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019 (forecast)

% Difference 2020 2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.880

+2.7 20.243

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

43.1

+2.6 43.5

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.200

+0.4 3.295

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.1

-1.2 16.3

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.677

+0.2 2.693

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.290

+4.3 0.300

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

10.8

+4.5 11.1

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of export data under the STATISTICS tab.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -October 17 th 2019


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #594 November 8th 2019

11/10/2019

OVERVIEW

The November 8th 2019 USDA WASDE Report was released on due date despite the relocation of many ERS personnel from Washington D.C. to Kansas City. Projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests for the November WASDE are based on actual yield and harvested area with progressive updating as the season has advanced. The current unknown is the effect of predicted mid-October and early November frost and snowfall on yield for a late-planted crop in Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska.

The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting completed in June at 89.9 million acres (81.8 million in 2018) unchanged from the October WASDE. In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 75.6 million acres, unchanged from the October estimate (88.3 million acres in 2018)

The USDA projected corn yield was reduced 0.8 percent to 167.0 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018) due to late planting, delayed development and adverse weather during harvest. Soybean yield was retained at 46.9 bushels per acre from the October WASDE, (52.1 bushels in 2018). Yield values presume suitable climatic conditions through completion of the harvest.

The November USDA projection of the ending stock for corn was lowered by 1.0 percent from the October WASDE to 1,910 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 3.3 percent higher than the October estimate to 475 million bushels. Projections for ending stocks for both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations concurrently with conflicting reports on trade negotiations with China. It is presumed that projections are based on the assumption that there will be no comprehensive settlement of the trade dispute with China during the fourth quarter of 2019. Some concessions on tariffs will be incorporated into an anticipated "Phase-1" accord. China failed to commit to purchase commodities following the June meeting between President Trump and Premier Xi at the G-20 Meeting in Osaka. No substantial orders have been placed by China since the mid-October negotiations in Washington. Some orders representing four percent of projected 2019 exports of soybeans were forthcoming in September after the August G-7 Summit in France. In mid-September, China rescinded a ban on all agricultural imports from the U.S. imposed on August 4 th. This followed the announcement of a delay in introducing a September 1st threatened tariff of 10 percent on imports from China valued at $300 billion not already subject to duty.


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-September 2019.

11/10/2019

Export data for the first nine months of 2019 indicate a fractional increase in exports of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from progressive monthly comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price although reversed in September. The trend in successively lower unit prices is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. The extensive outbreak of African swine fever may boost U.S. exports in the intermediate term as all animal protein will rise in price as the pork supply is curtailed.

Total exports of broiler parts for the period attained 2,372,142 metric tons, 0.6 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (2,357,754 metric tons). Total value of exports increased by 1.1 percent to $2,420 million ($2,394 million).

During January-September 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,459,254 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $2,673 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,049 per metric ton, 1.7 percent higher in unit value compared to the first nine months of 2018 ($1,067 per metric ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-September by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2019 compared with 2018 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

· Chicken parts 96.2%; Unit value $986 per metric ton ($995)

· Prepared chicken 2.4%; Unit value $3,588 per metric ton ($3,557)

· Whole chicken 1.4%; Unit value $1,049 per metric ton ($1,024)


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019.

10/18/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data on October17th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (revised) and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the September 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 3.0 percent compared to 2018 to 19.85 million metric tons (43,667 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption in 2019 was increased 2.1 percent from the September report to 42.9 kg. (94.3 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.3 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.232 million metric tons (6,580 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that failure to ratify the USMCA, (concluded in September 2018), by both the U.S. Congress and by the Parliament of Canada in 2019 will not impact exports to our NAFTA neighbors.

Turkey production will decline fractionally (0.6 percent) in 2019 compared to 2018 to 2.657 million metric tons (5,846 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will remain at 7.3 kg. (16.0 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection from 2018 despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will increase 4.3 percent to 0.290 million metric tons (637 million lbs.).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 and 2020 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, lower poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels, live weights and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the USMCA signed in September 2018, will not be ratified by the legislatures of the U.S and Canada in 2019, but NAFTA partners will not increase tariffs. In this event market share in Mexico will be retained despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

The projections do not allow for emergence of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvNCD.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019 (forecast)

% Difference 2020 2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.849

+3.0 20.175

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

42.9

+2.1 43.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.213

3.232

+0.6 3.295

Proportion of production (%)

16.5

16.3

-1.2 16.3

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.672

2.657

-0.6 2.686

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.2

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.278

0.290

+4.3 0.300

Proportion of production (%)

10.4

10.9

+4.5 11.2

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS and the review of export data under the STATISTICS tab.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -October 17 th 2019


 

Meat Exports

09/06/2019

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-July 2019.

Export data for the first seven months of 2019 indicate a moderate increase in exports of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from this and progressive monthly comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price. This is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

Total exports of broiler parts for the period attained 1,838,031 metric tons, 1.3 percent more than the corresponding period in 2018 (1,813,972 metric tons). Total value of exports declined by 1.9 percent to $1,834 million ($1,869 million).


 

 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane