Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #589 June 11th 2019

06/11/2019

OVERVIEW

The June 11th 2019 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting completed and stated intentions at 82.4 million acres (81.8 million in 2018) and down 3.5 percent from the May WASDE. In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 87.8 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018). There was apparently no material change due to recent Midwest flooding or the forecast for wet conditions from snowmelt delaying planting.

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 166.0 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2018) and down 5.7 percent from the May WASDE. Soybean yield was projected at 49.5 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018). These values presume suitable planting and growing conditions, time of sowing and standard rates of germination.

The May USDA projection of ending stock for corn was reduced by 32.6 percent from the May WASDE to 1,675 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 8.5 percent higher at 970 million bushels. Ending stocks for both corn and soybeans have influenced recent CME price quotations. It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China followed by restoration of exports to that Nation, a prospect that appears in question given lower demand from China and the latest round of tariffs imposed by both nations.


 

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports for January-April 2019.

06/07/2019

Export data for the first four months of 2019 indicate a moderate decline in export of broiler parts in comparison to the corresponding period in 2018. The overwhelming impression from this and previous comparisons is the consistent erosion in unit price. This is attributed to the fact that leg quarters comprise over 95 percent of exports. This product represents a low-value commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions.

Total broiler exports for the period attained 1,027,603 metric tons, 1.1 percent less than the corresponding period in 2018 (1,039,280 metric tons). Total value of exports declined by 11.7 percent to $957 million ($1,069 million).

During January-April 2019 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,104,422 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared) valued at $1,074 million with a weighted average unit value of $973 per metric ton, 9.9 percent lower in value compared to the first four months of 2018 ($1,080 per metric ton).

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports during January-April by proportion and unit price for each broiler category for 2019 compared with 2018 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

  • Chicken parts 96.1%; Unit value $899 per metric ton ($1,008)

  • Prepared chicken 2.8%; Unit value $3,516 per metric ton ($3,848)

  • Whole chicken 1.1%; Unit value $1,011 per metric ton ($1,070)


 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for 2019.

05/19/2019

The USDA-Economic Research Service released production and consumption data on May 16th for broilers and turkeys covering 2018 (revised) and 2019 (forecast) together with a projection for 2020.

Broiler data for 2019 was essentially unchanged from the April 2019 report. Production in 2019 will increase by 0.9 percent compared to 2018 to 19.541 million metric tons (42,990 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption was increased for 2019 from the April report to 42.3 kg. (92.6 lbs.) Exports will represent 16.5 percent of RTC production in 2019 attaining 3.230 million metric tons (7,106 million lbs.) This is based on the presumption that the recently concluded USMCA will be approved by Congress and by the legislatures of Canada and Mexico.

Turkey production will decrease by <0.1 percent in 2019 compared to 2018 to 2.673 million metric tons (5,881 million lbs.) RTC. Per capita consumption will attain 7.3 kg. (16.1 lb.) during 2019, a 1.4 percent downward projection despite promotions and introduction of further-processed items. Export volume will be the same as 2018 at 0.277 million metric tons (610 million lbs.).

Forecast values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2019 are considered to be optimistic given 2019 prices, egg settings, poult placements, disposal of hen poults, weekly production levels and inventory. The USDA projection presumably takes into account that the recently concluded USMCA, if ratified by the legislatures of all three nations, will avert tariffs. This will maintain market share in Mexico despite growing competition from Chile and other nations in Latin America.

Metric values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

 

 

Parameter

2018 (actual)

2019 (forecast)

% Difference 2020 2018 to 2019 (projection)

Broilers

     

Production (m. metric tons)

19.364

19.541

+0.9 19.795

Consumption (kg per capita)

42.0

42.3

+0.7 42.4

Exports (m. metric tons)

3.212

3.230

+0.6 3.295

Proportion of production (%)

16.6

16.5

-0.6 16.7

       

Turkeys

     

Production (m. metric tons)

2.671

2.673

<+0.1 2.700

Consumption (kg per capita)

7.4

7.3

-1.4 7.3

Exports (m. metric tons)

0.277

0.277

0 0.286

Proportion of production (%)

10.3

10.3

0 10.6

Subscribers are referred to the weekly updates of production and inventories of broilers and turkeys posted weekly on CHICK-NEWS

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -May 16th 2019


 

 
Copyright 2019 Simon M. Shane