Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for May 2024.
On June 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.
The 2024 projection for broiler production is 46,865 million lbs. (21.302 million metric tons) up 1.0 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.6 lbs. (46.2 kg.) for 2024, up 2.1 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,734 million lbs. (3.061 million metric tons), 7.3 percent below the previous year.
The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,550 million lbs. (21.614 million metric tons) up 1.5 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.5 lb. to 102.1 lbs. (46.4 kg). Exports will be 2.6 percent lower compared to 2024 at 6,825 million lbs. (3.102 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.4 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2023
(actual)
|
2024
(projection)
|
2025
(forecast)
|
Difference
2024 to 2025
|
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,387
|
46,865
|
47,550
|
+1.5
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
99.5
|
101.6
|
102.1
|
+0.5
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,265
|
6,734
|
6,875
|
+2.1
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.7
|
14.4
|
14.5
|
+0.7
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,457
|
5,234
|
5,320
|
+1.6
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.8
|
14.2
|
14.3
|
+0.7
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
489
|
515
|
515
|
0
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.0
|
9.8
|
9.7
|
+8.8
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 18th 2024
The June 18th USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,234 million lbs. (2.379 million metric tons), down 4.1 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 14.2 lbs. (6.5 kg.) per capita, down 4.1 percent from the previous year Export volume will increase by 5.3 percent in 2024 to 515 million lbs. (234,090 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.
The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,320 million lbs. (2.418 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.7 percent to 14.3 lbs. (6.5 kg). Exports will be unchanged in 2025 at 515 million lbs. (234,000 metric tons) equivalent to 9.7 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Feet represented 77.8 percent of volume during 2022 (483,538 metric tons) at a unit price of $1,926 per ton. Compared to 2022, exports to China during 2023 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first four months of 2024 broiler exports to China were down 60.2 percent compared to the corresponding months in 2023 at 66,336 metric tons. Value was down 52.3 percent to $129 million. Depending on trade and political relations between the U.S and China in 2025 exports could be substantially lower.
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.