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Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports
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Meat Projection Oct 2024
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10/19/2024 |
Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for October 2024.
On October 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.
The 2024 projection for broiler production is 47,084 million lbs. (21.401 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.1 lbs. (46.4 kg.) for 2024, up 2.6 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,721 million lbs. (3.055 million metric tons), 7.4 percent below the previous year.
The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,825 million lbs. (21.739 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 1.0 lb. to 103.1 lbs. (46.9 kg). Exports will be 1.3 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,810 million lbs. (3.095 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.2 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
Parameter
|
2023
(actual)
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2024
(projection)
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2025
(forecast)
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Difference
2023 to 2024
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Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
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46,387
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47,084
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47,825
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+1.5
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Consumption (lbs. per capita)
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99.5
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102.1
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103.1
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+2.6
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Exports (million lbs.)
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7,260
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6,721
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6,810
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-7.4
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Proportion of production (%)
|
15.7
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14.3
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14.2
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-8.9
|
|
|
|
|
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Turkeys
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|
|
|
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Production (million lbs.)
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5,457
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5,110
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5,165
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-6.4
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Consumption (lbs. per capita)
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14.8
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13.9
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13.7
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-6.1
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Exports (million lbs.)
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490
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504
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530
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+2.9
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Proportion of production (%)
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9.0
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9.9
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10.3
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+10.0
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Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released October 18th 2024
The October USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,110 million lbs. (2.323 million metric tons), down 6.0 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 13.9 lbs. (6.3 kg.) per capita, down 6.4 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024 to 504 million lbs. (229,090 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, limited losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.
The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,165 million lbs. (2.348 million metric tons) up 1.1 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 1.4 percent to 13.7 lbs. (6.2 kg). Exports will be 5.2 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
Compared to 2023 exports of broiler products to China during 2024 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first half of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by volume of imports was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 92,069 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $183 million
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.
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Meat Exports
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10/18/2024 |
U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-August 2024.
OVERVIEW
Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-August 2024 attained 2,170,745 metric tons, 11.2 percent lower than in January-July 2023 (2,170,745 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports decreased by 4.5 percent to $3,034 million ($3,176 million).
Total export volume of turkey products during January-August 2024 attained 144,754 metric tons, 8.2 percent more than in January-August 2023 (133,729 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports increased by 9.7 percent to $431 million ($393 million).
Unit price for the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 through 2022, the value of leg quarters increased in unit value consistent with international demand followed by a decline in 2023. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. To increase sales volume and value the U.S. industry will have to become more customer-centric offering value-added presentations with attributes required by importers. Whether this will increase margins is questionable given the by-product contribution of leg quarters. A more profitable strategy for the U.S. industry would be to develop products using dark meat to compete with and displace pork and beef in the domestic retail and institutional markets.
HPAI is now accepted to be a panornitic affecting the poultry meat industries of six continents with seasonal and sporadic outbreaks. The incidence rate and location of cases in the U.S. limits eligibility for export depending on restrictions imposed by importing nations
Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 and Europe from 2010 onwards reduced the availability of pork. In addition, disruptions in chicken production and logistics due to COVID restrictions decreased availability of protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished with restoration of domestic hog production to the extent of overproduction. Mild oversupply is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet extending into 2024.
EXPORT VOLUMES AND PRICES FOR BROILER MEAT
During January-August 2024 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,114,048 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared), down 10.7 percent from January-August 2023. Exports were valued at $3,124 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,422 per metric ton.
The NCC breakdown of chicken exports for January-August 2024 by proportion and unit price for each category compared with the corresponding months in 2023 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-
- Chicken parts (excluding feet) 2%; Unit value $1,327 per metric ton ($1,246)
- Prepared chicken 2%; Unit value $6,132 per metric ton ($4,377)
- Whole chicken 6%; Unit value $1,673 per metric ton ($1,688)
- Composite Total 0%; Av. value $1,422 per metric ton ($1,311)
The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports during January-August 2024 compared with the corresponding months of 2023:-
PRODUCT
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Jan.-Aug. 2023
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Jan.-Aug. 2024
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DIFFERENCE
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Broiler Meat & Feet
|
|
|
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Volume (metric tons)
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2,445,553
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2,170,745
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-274,808 (-11.2%)
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Value ($ millions)
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3,176
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3,034
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-142 (-4.5%)
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Unit value ($/m. ton)
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1,299
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1,395
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+96 (+7.4%)
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Turkey Meat
|
|
|
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Volume (metric tons)
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133,729
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144,754
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+11,025 (+8.2%)
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Value ($ millions)
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393
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431
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+38 (+9.7%)
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Unit value ($/m. ton)
|
2,939
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2,978
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-39 (-1.3%)
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COMPARISON OF U.S. CHICKEN AND TURKEY EXPORTS JANUARY-August 2024 COMPARED TO 2023
BROILER EXPORTS
Total broiler parts, predominantly leg quarters but including feet, exported during January-August 2024 compared with the corresponding months in 2023 declined by 11.2 percent in volume and 4.5 percent in value. Unit value was 7.4 percent higher to $1,395 per metric ton.
During 2023 exports attained 3,635,178 metric tons valued at $4,739 million, down 4.2 percent in volume and down 9.2 percent in value compared to 2022. Unit value was down 9.5 percent to $1,284 per metric ton
Broiler imports in 2024 are projected to attain 63,600 metric tons (140 million lbs.) rising to 72,000 metric tons (160,000 million lbs.) in 2025
The top five importers of broiler meat represented 46.1 percent of shipments during January-August 2024. The top ten importers comprised 64.7 percent of the total volume reflecting concentration among the significant importing nations but with a decline in the importance of China.
During January-August 2024 Mexico was the first-ranked importer by volume and value with 482,182 metric tons representing 22.2 percent of export volume up 0.7 percent from the first half of 2023. Value at $620 million was 20.4 percent of the total for exported broiler products during January-August 2024 and up 15.9 percent from 2023, but with a 15.0 percent increase in unit price to $1,285 per metric ton. During August 2024 volume was down 2.4 percent to 61,120 metric tons and value was higher by 15.0 percent from August 2023 to $81.5 million.
Cuba was the 2nd-ranked importer based on volume during January-August 2024 with 168,370 metric tons representing 7.8 percent of the eight-month total, valued at $201.5 million. Exports were down 14.5 percent in volume and 2.1 percent in value compared to January-August 2023. Unit price was $1,197 per metric ton. During August 2024 Cuba was 2nd-ranked with imports down 35.3 percent in volume to 22,690 metric tons and down 25.1 percent in value to $27.7 compared to August 2023 with a unit price of $1,221 per metric ton.
Taiwan was 3rd ranked as an importer during January-August 2024 with 131,229 metric tons, representing 6.1 percent of the eighth-month volume valued at $159.3 million, down 35.3 percent and 40.1 percent in volume and value respectively, compared to the previous year. Unit price was $1,214 per metric ton. During August Taiwan was ranked 6th in volume with exports down 24.7 percent to 12,885 metric tons and down 30.3 percent in value to $15.4 compared to August 2023.
The Philippines ranked 4th among importers with 108,502 metric tons valued at $119.1 million and at a unit price of $1,078 per ton over the first eight months of 2024. Volume and value were respectively higher by 7.1 and 8.5 percent compared to January to August 2023. During August the Philippines ranked third in volume with 20,416 metric tons representing 7.6 and 6.3 percent of monthly volume and value of broiler exports respectively. The increase in volume to the Philippines is attributed to the reduced availability of pork due to an ongoing epizootic of African swine fever.
During January-July 2024 exports to China, 5th-ranked by volume and 2nd ranked by value represented 5.0 percent by volume and 8.1 percent by value of shipments. Exports were down 64.4 percent in volume to 108,502 metric tons and down 51.9 percent in value to $247 million compared to January-August 2023. Unit price was $2,276 per metric ton up 26.1 percent. During August 2024 China ranked 9th among importers based on volume, receiving 8,845 metric tons down 68.4 percent from August 2023. Exports in August 2024 were valued at $33.9 million down 38.3 percent with a unit price of $3,833 per metric ton, up 100.0 percent and confirming the predominance of feet in relation to other products.
During 2023, 405,313 metric tons of U.S. broiler products were shipped to China, valued at $711,172 with an average unit value of $1,755 per metric ton. A breakdown of product categories and prices was provided by USAPEEC. Paws and feet represented 68.5 percent of volume and 73.1 percent of value with a unit price of $1,871 per metric ton. Legs and leg quarters comprising 22.6 percent of volume and 12.8 percent of value were priced at $990 per metric ton below the $1,302 average for all U.S. exports excluding China. Wings comprised 4.6 percent of volume and 5.7 percent of value with a unit price of $2,190 per metric ton. All other poultry products (including 4 tons of duck meat) amounting to 4.2 percent of volume and 8.4 percent of value attained an average unit price of $3,485 per metric ton
During January-August 2024 exports to Hong Kong, 10th ranked by volume, but 7th by value, increased by 104.0 percent in volume to 61,339 metric tons and 83.9 percent in value to $94.2 million with a unit price of $1,528 per metric ton. In 2022 and 2023 unit prices were $1,834 and $1,671 per metric ton respectively. Accordingly consignments are presumed to comprise a high proportion of feet with assumed transshipment to the Mainland as in past years.
During January-August 2024 export volume to 6th-ranked Canada was almost unchanged from 2023 at 99,352 metric tons valued at $302.6 million.
Nations gaining in volume compared to the corresponding period in 2023 (with the percentage change indicated) in descending order of volume with ranking indicated by numeral were:-
- Mexico, (+0.7%); 4. Philippines, (+7%); 6. Canada, (+0.7%); 8. Viet Nam, (+22%); 9. Angola, (+15%); 10. Hong-Kong, (+104%); 11.UAE, (+55%); 13, Ghana, (+23%); 14. Dominican Republic, (+15%)
Losses during January-August 2024 offset the gains in exports with declines for:-
- Cuba, (-15%); 3. Taiwan, (-35%); 5. China, (-64%); 7. Guatemala, (-2%); 12. Georgia, (-17%); 15. Haiti, (-23%); 17. Colombia, (-14%) and 18. Congo–Braz., (-49%).
TURKEY EXPORTS
The volume of turkey meat exported during January-August 2024 increased by 8.2 percent to 144,754 metric tons from January-August 2023 and value was 9.7 percent higher to $431 million compared to January-August 2023. Average unit value was 1.3 percent lower to $2,978 per metric ton.
Imports of turkey products will attain 15,000 metric tons (33 million lbs) in 2024 and a similar value in 2025.
For the entire year of 2023 export volume increased by 20.2 percent to 221,098 metric tons compared to 2022 and value fell by 2.0 percent to $620 million reflecting an 18.5 percent decrease in unit value to $2,829 per metric ton.
Mexico was the dominant importer of turkey products during January-August 2024 with 110,265 metric tons representing 76.2 percent of total volume of 144,754 metric tons. Value at $320.6 million was 74.4 percent of the total. Volume was 19.9 percent higher and value was 16.5 percent higher than for January-August 2023. Unit value was down 2.8 percent to $2,905 per metric ton. During August Mexico imported 15,393 metric tons valued at $45 million, down 4.5 percent in volume but up 18.8 percent in value.
Imports by the nations of the Caribbean (10,318 metric tons); Canada (3,749); Central America, (5,801), and East Asia (3,571) collectively comprised 23,499 metric tons of turkey products in January-August 2024 representing 16.2 percent of volume and 19.1 percent of total export value with the combined regions amounting to $82.1 million. Unit price was $3,493 per metric ton.
During January-August 2024 nations increasing volumes of purchases, albeit over a small base, compared to the corresponding months in 2023 with ranking comprised:-
- Mexico, (+20%); 4. Dominican Republic, (+33%);
Nations reducing volume of imports over January-August included:-
- Canada, (-29%) and 3. Jamaica, (-25%) and 5. Windward and Leeward Islands, (-54%).
PROJECTION FOR 2024 and 2025
The October 18th 2024 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook Report, updated 2024 exports of broiler products upwards to 3.055 million metric tons (6,721 million lbs.). This value represents 14.3 percent of the projected production of 21.402 million metric tons (47,084 million lb.) of broiler RTC by the U.S. industry.
For 2025 exports of broiler products were forecast at 3.095 million metric tons (6,810 million lbs.), equivalent to 14.2 percent of forecast annual production of 21.738 million metric tons (47,825 million lbs.)
Projected export of turkey products in 2024 will be 229,090 metric tons, (504 million lbs.) or 9.9 percent of annual production of 2.323 million metric tons (5,110 million lbs.).
For 2025 export of turkey products in 2025 is forecast at 240,909 metric tons (530 million lbs.) equivalent to 10.3 percent of forecast annual production of 2.347 million metric tons (5,165 million lbs.)
It is important to recognize that exports of chicken and turkey meat products to our USMCA partners amounted to $1,264 million in 2021, $1,647 million during 2022, $1,696 in 2023 and $1,257 million over the first eight-months of 2024. It will be necessary for all three parties to the USMCA to respect the terms of the agreement since punitive action against Mexico or Canada on issues unrelated to poultry products will result in reciprocal action by our trading partners to the possible detriment of U.S. agro-industries. This is especially important as Mexico has elected a new Presidenta and a change in the Government of Canada is anticipated.
The emergence of H5N1strain avian influenza virus with a Eurasian genome in migratory waterfowl in all four Flyways of the U.S. during 2022 was responsible for sporadic outbreaks of avian influenza in backyard flocks and serious commercial losses in egg-producing complexes and turkey flocks but to a lesser extent in broilers. The probability of additional extensive outbreaks of HPAI over succeeding weeks appears less likely as spring migration of waterfowl has concluded. Incident cases in 2024 comprised 1.3 million commercial-level meat turkeys and 70,000 breeders through August. Additional outbreaks affecting egg-production and turkey flocks occurred during October and additional incident cases will be a function of shedding by migratory and domestic birds and possibly free-living mammals or indirectly from dairy herds. The extent of protection of commercial flocks at present relies on the intensity and efficiency of biosecurity including wild-bird laser repelling installations, representing investment in structural improvements and operational procedures. These measures are apparently inadequate to provide absolute protection, suggesting the need for preventive vaccination in high-risk areas for egg-producing, breeder and turkey flocks.
The application of restricted county-wide embargos following the limited and regional cases of HPAI in broilers with restoration of eligibility 28 days after decontamination has supported export volume for the U.S. broiler industry. Exports of turkey products were more constrained with plants processing turkeys in Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wisconsin and Iowa impacted. Most nations have now lifted embargos that were previously placed on entire states or counties following outbreaks in the1st and 2nd quarters of 2024 as the WOAH mandated post-decontamination period has expired. The challenge will be to gain acceptance for vaccination based on intensive surveillance. It is now accepted that H5N1 HPAI is panornitic in distribution among commercial and migratory birds across six continents. The infection is now seasonally or regionally endemic in many nations with intensive poultry production, suggesting that vaccination will have to be accepted among trading partners as an adjunct to control measures in accordance with WOAH policy.
The live-bird market system supplying metropolitan areas, the presence of numerous backyard flocks, fighting cocks and commercial laying hens allowed outside access, potentially in contact with migratory and now some resident bird species, all represent an ongoing danger to the entire U.S. commercial industry. The live-bird segments of U.S. poultry production represent a risk to the export eligibility of the broiler and turkey industries notwithstanding compartmentalization for breeders and regionalization to counties or states for commercial production.
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Broiler Month
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09/27/2024 |
Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, September 26th 2024.
Broiler Chick Placements.
According to the September 20th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 976.3 million eggs were set over five weeks extending from the week ending August 24th 2024 through September 14th 2024 inclusive. This was three percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023.
Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 773.1 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.7 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, up 0.3 percent from the preceding four-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.93 million chicks placed per week and 1.83 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and with the current range of weekly settings.
Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through September 14th 2024 chick placements attained 7.01 billion, up one percent from the corresponding week in 2023.
According to the September 23rd 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs, pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during August 2024 amounted to 8.70 million, up 5.6 percent (45,960 pullet chicks) from August 2023 and 12.0 percent (934,000 pullet chicks) more than the previous month of July 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 63.7 million on September 1st 2024, 1.8 percent (1.1 million hens) more than on September 1st 2023.
Broiler Production
As documented in the September 19th 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending September 14th 2024, 170.3 million broilers were processed at 6.68 lbs. live. This was 1.7 percent more than the 167.5 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of August 2024 and 0.2 percent more than the 169.9 million processed during the corresponding week in September 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 6,042 million, 1.7 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.
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Turkey Month
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09/27/2024 |
Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, August 25th 2024
Poult Production and Placement:
The September 13th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 24.98 million eggs in incubators on September 1st 2024 compared to 26.64 million eggs on September 1st 2023* The September 2024 set was down 1.65 million eggs (6.2 percent) from September 2023 and 0.12 million eggs (0.5 percent) more than the previous month of July 2024.
A total of 21.01 million poults were hatched during August 2024 down 2.44 million poults (10.4 percent) compared to 23.45 million in August 2023*. The August 2024 hatch was down 0.11 million poults (0.5 percent) from the previous month of July.
A total of 20.28 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in August 2024, compared to 22.43 million in August 2023*. The August 2024 placement was 0.70 million poults (3.4 percent) less than in July 2024. This data confirms disposal of 0.73 million poults during the month. Approximately 3.5 percent of the August 2024 hatch was not placed.
For the twelve-month period September 2023 through August 2024 inclusive, 255.99 million poults were hatched and 238.94 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 17.05 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.7 percent of all poults hatched.
* USDA revision from previous monthly report.
Turkey Production:
The September 19th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-
- For the processing week ending September 14th 2024, 1.511 million hens were processed at 17.5 lbs. live. This was 10.3 percent less than the 1.683 million hens processed during the corresponding week in August 2024 and 16.4 percent less than the 1.808 million processed during the corresponding week in September 2023. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 58.58 million, 12.1 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 21.27 million lbs. (9,670 metric tons). This quantity was 10.7 percent less than the 23.82 million lbs. for corresponding week in September 2024 and 5.7 percent less than the 25.27 million lbs. during the corresponding week in August 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC hen production attained 800.54 million lbs. (363,880 metric tons). This quantity is 13.1 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- For the processing week ending September 14th 2024, 2.203 million toms were processed at 42.6 lbs. live. This was 1.9 percent more than the 2.161 million toms processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 8.7 percent more than the 2.027 million during the corresponding week in August 2023. Year-to-date 73.60 million toms have been processed, less than 0.3 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 75.6 million lbs. (34,347 metric tons). This quantity was 0.1 percent more than the 75.5 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in August 2024 and 8.8 percent less than the 69.4 million lbs. during the corresponding week in September 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC tom production attained 2,6334 million lbs. (1.197 million metric tons). This quantity is 1.0 percent more than the corresponding period in 2023.
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Poultry Meat Projection September 2024
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09/20/2024 |
Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for September 2024.
On September 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.
The 2024 projection for broiler production is 47,109 million lbs. (21.403 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.0 lbs. (46.4 kg.) for 2024, up 2.6 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,766 million lbs. (3.075 million metric tons), 6.7 percent below the previous year.
The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,675 million lbs. (21.670 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.5 lb. to 102.5 lbs. (46.6 kg). Exports will be 1.6 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,875 million lbs. (3.125 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
Parameter
|
2023
(actual)
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2024
(projection)
|
2025
(forecast)
|
Difference
2023 to 2024
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,387
|
47,109
|
47,675
|
+1.6
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
99.5
|
102.0
|
102.5
|
+2.5
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,260
|
6,776
|
6,875
|
-6.8
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.7
|
14.4
|
14.4
|
-8.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,457
|
5,130
|
5,175
|
-6.0
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.8
|
13.9
|
13.8
|
-6.1
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
490
|
507
|
530
|
+3.5
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.0
|
9.9
|
10.2
|
+10.0
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 18th 2024
The September USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,130 million lbs. (2.332 million metric tons), down 6.0 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 13.9 lbs. (6.3 kg.) per capita, down 6.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 3.5 percent in 2024 to 507 million lbs. (230,455 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.
The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,175 million lbs. (2.352 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 13.8 lbs. (6.3 kg). Exports will be 5.0 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
Compared to 2022 exports of broiler products to China during 2024 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first half of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by volume of imports was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 92,069 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $183 million
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.
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Meat Exports
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09/19/2024 |
U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-July 2024.
OVERVIEW
Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-July 2024 attained 1,903,088 metric tons, 11.0 percent lower than in January-July 2023 (2,137,362 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports decreased by 5.1 percent to $2,631 million ($2,771 million).
Total export volume of turkey products during January-July 2024 attained 124,050 metric tons, 12.1 percent more than in January-July 2023 (110,625 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports increased by 10.8 percent to $369 million ($333 million).
Unit price for the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 through 2022, the value of leg quarters increased in unit value consistent with international demand followed by a decline in 2023. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. To increase sales volume and value the U.S. industry will have to become more customer-centric offering value-added presentations with attributes required by importers. Whether this will increase margins is questionable given the by-product status of leg quarters. A more profitable strategy for the U.S. industry would be to develop products using dark meat to compete with and displace pork in the domestic market.
HPAI is now accepted to be a panornitic affecting the poultry meat industries of six continents with seasonal and sporadic outbreaks. The incidence rate and location of cases in the U.S. limits eligibility for export depending on restrictions imposed by importing nations
Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 and Europe from 2010 onwards reduced the availability of pork. In addition, disruptions in chicken production and logistics due to COVID restrictions decreased availability of protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished with restoration of domestic hog production to the extent of overproduction. Mild oversupply is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet extending into 2024.
EXPORT VOLUMES AND PRICES FOR BROILER MEAT
During January-July 2024 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 1,926,071 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared), down 10.4 percent from January-July 2023. Exports were valued at $2,631 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,382 per metric ton.
The NCC breakdown of chicken exports for January-July 2024 by proportion and unit price for each category compared with the corresponding months in 2023 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-
- Chicken parts (excluding feet) 3%; Unit value $1,314 per metric ton ($1,245)
- Prepared chicken 2%; Unit value $4,200 per metric ton ($4,376)
- Whole chicken 5%; Unit value $1,674 per metric ton ($1,646)
- Composite Total 0%; Av. value $1,407 per metric ton ($1,309)
The following table prepared from USDA data circulated by the USAPEEC, compares values for poultry meat exports during January-July 2024 compared with the corresponding months of 2023:-
PRODUCT
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Jan.-July 2023
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Jan.-July 2024
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DIFFERENCE
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Broiler Meat & Feet
|
|
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Volume (metric tons)
|
2,137,362
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1,903,088
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-234,274 (-11.0%)
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Value ($ millions)
|
2,772
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2,631
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-141 (-5.1%)
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Unit value ($/m. ton)
|
1,297
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1,383
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+86 (+6.6%)
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Turkey Meat
|
|
|
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Volume (metric tons)
|
110,623
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124,050
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+13,427 (+12.1%)
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Value ($ millions)
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333
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369
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+36 ( +10.8%)
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Unit value ($/m. ton)
|
3,027
|
2,975
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-52 (-1.7%)
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Meat Projection July 2024
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07/18/2024 |
Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for July 2024.
On July 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.
The 2024 projection for broiler production is 46,700 million lbs. (21.227 million metric tons) up 0.5 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.3 lbs. (46.1 kg.) for 2024, up 1.8 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,744 million lbs. (3.065 million metric tons), 5.2 percent below the previous year.
The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,550 million lbs. (21.614 million metric tons) up 1.8 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.7 lb. to 102.0 lbs. (46.3 kg). Exports will be 1.9 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,744 million lbs. (3.065 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
Parameter
|
2023
(actual)
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2024
(projection)
|
2025
(forecast)
|
Difference
2023 to 2024
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,387
|
46,700
|
47,550
|
+0.8
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
99.5
|
101.3
|
102.0
|
+1.8
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,260
|
6,744
|
6,875
|
-7.1
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.7
|
14.4
|
14.6
|
-8.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,457
|
5,214
|
5,280
|
-4.4
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.8
|
14.2
|
14.1
|
-4.1
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
490
|
510
|
530
|
+4.1
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.0
|
9.8
|
10.0
|
+8.8
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released July 18th 2024
The July USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,214 million lbs. (2.330 million metric tons), down 4.4 percent from 2022. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 14.2 lbs. (6.5 kg.) per capita, down 4.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 4.1 percent in 2024 to 510 million lbs. (231,818 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.
The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,280 million lbs. (2.400 million metric tons) up 1.3 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 14.1 lbs. (6.4 kg). Exports will be 3.9 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and Canada nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Exports to China during 2023 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first five months of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by quantity was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 78,710 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $154 million
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.
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USDA Export Projections For Chicken
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09/02/2022 |
Based on the August 12th, 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA has projected chicken exports for 2022 with a forecast for 2023.
Broiler meat exports will amount to 3.3 million metric tons in 2022 valued at $4.2 billion. For 2023, volume and value will be unchanged, representing a unit price excluding feet, which are not federally inspected, at $1,272 per metric ton.
The 2023 exports of all agricultural products will amount to $193.5 billion in 2023, balanced by imports of $197.0 billion resulting in a negative annual balance of $3.5 billion.
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Copyright © 2024 Simon M. Shane
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