Poultry Industry Statistics and Reports

Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, October 26th 2024

Poult Production and Placement:

The October 16th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 24.46 million eggs in incubators on October 1st 2024 compared to 27.01 million eggs on October 1st 2023* The October 2024 set was down 2.55 million eggs (9.5 percent) from October 2023 and 0.54 million eggs (2.2 percent) less than the previous month of September 2024.

A total of 20.39 million poults were hatched during September 2024 down 1.18 million poults (5.5 percent) compared to 21.57 million in September 2023*. The September 2024 hatch was down 0.30 million poults (1.5 percent) from the previous month of August.

A total of 18.19 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in September 2024, compared to 19.09 million in September 2023*. The September 2024 placement was 0.91 million poults (4.7 percent) less than in August 2024. This data confirms disposal of 2.20 million poults during the month. Approximately 12.1 percent of the September 2024 hatch was not placed.

For the twelve-month period October 2023 through September 2024 inclusive, 254.49 million poults were hatched and 237.85 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 16.64 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.5 percent of all poults hatched.

* USDA revision from previous monthly report.

Turkey Production:

The October 17th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-

• For the processing week ending October 16th 2024, 1.380 million hens were processed at 17.7 lbs. live. This was 8.7 percent less than the 1.511 million hens processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 35.0 percent less than the 2.122 million processed during the corresponding week in October 2023. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 64.5 million, 12.5 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 19.70 million lbs. (8,953 metric tons). This quantity was 7.4 percent less than the 21.27 million lbs. for corresponding week in September 2024 and 31.1 percent less than the 28.09 million lbs. during the corresponding week in October 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC hen production attained 884.1 million lbs. (401,864 metric tons). This quantity is 13.0 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• For the processing week ending September 12th 2024, 2.247 million toms were processed at 44.0 lbs. live. This was 2.0 percent more than the 2.203 million toms processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 10.4 percent more than the 2.035 million during the corresponding week in October 2023. Year-to-date 82.38 million toms have been processed, 0.6 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.
• Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 79.7 million lbs. (36,210 metric tons). This quantity was 3.4 percent more than the 75.6 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 8.8 percent less than the 69.4 million lbs. during the corresponding week in September 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC tom production attained 2,942 million lbs. (1.337 million metric tons). This quantity is 1.3 percent more than the corresponding period in 2023.

 

Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, October 26th 2024.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the October 18th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 961.6 million eggs were set over four weeks extending from the week ending September 21st 2024 through October 12th 2024 inclusive. This was two percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 752.9 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.6 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, down 0.1 percent from the preceding five-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.93 million chicks placed per week and 1.83 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through October 12th 2024 chick placements attained 7.76 billion, up one percent from the corresponding week in 2023.

According to the October 21st 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs, pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during September 2024 amounted to 9.73 million, up 9.2 percent (819,000 pullet chicks) from September 2023 and 11.8 percent (1.03 million pullet chicks) more than the previous month of August 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 61.53 million on October 1st 2024, 1.9 percent (1.2 million hens) more than on October 1st 2023.

Broiler Production

As documented in the October 17th 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending October 12th 2024, 168.6 million broilers were processed at 6.55 lbs. live. This was 1.0 percent less than the 170.3 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of September 2024 and 1.4 percent more than the 166.3 million processed during the corresponding week in October 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 6,717 million, 1.6 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week in October was 852.2 million lbs. (387,373 metric tons). This was 0.7 percent more than the 846.6 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in August 2024 and 3.0 percent more than the 839.0 million lbs. during the corresponding week in October 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2024 to date RTC broiler production attained 33,175 million lbs. (15.08 million metric tons). This quantity was 0.4 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.

 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for October 2024.

On October 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.

The 2024 projection for broiler production is 47,084 million lbs. (21.401 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.1 lbs. (46.4 kg.) for 2024, up 2.6 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,721 million lbs. (3.055 million metric tons), 7.4 percent below the previous year.

The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,825 million lbs. (21.739 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 1.0 lb. to 103.1 lbs. (46.9 kg). Exports will be 1.3 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,810 million lbs. (3.095 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.2 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released October 18th 2024

The October USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,110 million lbs. (2.323 million metric tons), down 6.0 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 13.9 lbs. (6.3 kg.) per capita, down 6.4 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024 to 504 million lbs. (229,090 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, limited losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.

The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,165 million lbs. (2.348 million metric tons) up 1.1 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 1.4 percent to 13.7 lbs. (6.2 kg). Exports will be 5.2 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

Compared to 2023 exports of broiler products to China during 2024 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first half of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by volume of imports was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 92,069 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $183 million

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.

U.S. Broiler and Turkey Exports, January-August 2024.

OVERVIEW

Total exports of bone-in broiler parts and feet during January-August 2024 attained 2,170,745 metric tons, 11.2 percent lower than in January-July 2023 (2,170,745 metric tons). Total value of broiler exports decreased by 4.5 percent to $3,034 million ($3,176 million).

Total export volume of turkey products during January-August 2024 attained 144,754 metric tons, 8.2 percent more than in January-August 2023 (133,729 metric tons). Total value of turkey exports increased by 9.7 percent to $431 million ($393 million).

Unit price for the broiler industry is constrained by the fact that leg quarters comprise over 96 percent of broiler meat exports by volume (excluding feet). From the first quarter of 2021 through 2022, the value of leg quarters increased in unit value consistent with international demand followed by a decline in 2023. Leg quarters represent a relatively low-value undifferentiated commodity lacking in pricing power. Exporters of commodities are subjected to competition from domestic production in importing nations. Generic products such as leg quarters are vulnerable to trade disputes and embargos based on real or contrived disease restrictions. To increase sales volume and value the U.S. industry will have to become more customer-centric offering value-added presentations with attributes required by importers. Whether this will increase margins is questionable given the by-product contribution of leg quarters. A more profitable strategy for the U.S. industry would be to develop products using dark meat to compete with and displace pork and beef in the domestic retail and institutional markets.

HPAI is now accepted to be a panornitic affecting the poultry meat industries of six continents with seasonal and sporadic outbreaks. The incidence rate and location of cases in the U.S. limits eligibility for export depending on restrictions imposed by importing nations

Ongoing outbreaks of African swine fever in China and Southeast Asia from early 2019 and Europe from 2010 onwards reduced the availability of pork. In addition, disruptions in chicken production and logistics due to COVID restrictions decreased availability of protein with international repercussions on trade in chicken and pork. The demand for pork imports to China has diminished with restoration of domestic hog production to the extent of overproduction. Mild oversupply is evident in the white-feathered broiler sector with implications for exports other than feet extending into 2024.

EXPORT VOLUMES AND PRICES FOR BROILER MEAT

During January-August 2024 the National Chicken Council (NCC), citing USDA-FAS data, documented exports of 2,114,048 metric tons of chicken parts and other forms (whole and prepared), down 10.7 percent from January-August 2023. Exports were valued at $3,124 million with a weighted average unit value of $1,422 per metric ton.

The NCC breakdown of chicken exports for January-August 2024 by proportion and unit price for each category compared with the corresponding months in 2023 (with the unit price in parentheses) comprised:-

• Chicken parts (excluding feet) 2%; Unit value $1,327 per metric ton ($1,246)
• Prepared chicken 2%; Unit value $6,132 per metric ton ($4,377)
• Whole chicken 6%; Unit value $1,673 per metric ton ($1,688)
• Composite Total 0%; Av. value $1,422 per metric ton ($1,311)

 

Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for September 2024. 

On September 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.

The 2024 projection for broiler production is 47,109 million lbs. (21.403 million metric tons) up 1.6 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 102.0 lbs. (46.4 kg.) for 2024, up 2.6 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,766 million lbs. (3.075 million metric tons), 6.7 percent below the previous year.

The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,675 million lbs. (21.670 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.5 lb. to 102.5 lbs. (46.6 kg). Exports will be 1.6 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,875 million lbs. (3.125 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released September 18th 2024

The September USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,130 million lbs. (2.332 million metric tons), down 6.0 percent from 2023. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 13.9 lbs. (6.3 kg.) per capita, down 6.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 3.5 percent in 2024 to 507 million lbs. (230,455 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.

The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,175 million lbs. (2.352 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 13.8 lbs. (6.3 kg). Exports will be 5.0 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

 Compared to 2022 exports of broiler products to China during 2024 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first half of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by volume of imports was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 92,069 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $183 million

Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.

Based on the August 12th, 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA has projected chicken exports for 2022 with a forecast for 2023.

Broiler meat exports will amount to 3.3 million metric tons in 2022 valued at $4.2 billion.  For 2023, volume and value will be unchanged, representing a unit price excluding feet, which are not federally inspected, at $1,272 per metric ton.

The 2023 exports of all agricultural products will amount to $193.5 billion in 2023, balanced by imports of $197.0 billion resulting in a negative annual balance of $3.5 billion.