Updated USDA-ERS Poultry Meat Projection for July 2024.
On July 18th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2023 a projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025.
The 2024 projection for broiler production is 46,700 million lbs. (21.227 million metric tons) up 0.5 percent from 2023. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.3 lbs. (46.1 kg.) for 2024, up 1.8 percent from 2023. Exports will attain 6,744 million lbs. (3.065 million metric tons), 5.2 percent below the previous year.
The 2025 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 47,550 million lbs. (21.614 million metric tons) up 1.8 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption up 0.7 lb. to 102.0 lbs. (46.3 kg). Exports will be 1.9 percent higher compared to 2024 at 6,744 million lbs. (3.065 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.
Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-
|
Parameter
|
2023
(actual)
|
2024
(projection)
|
2025
(forecast)
|
Difference
2023 to 2024
|
|
Broilers
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
46,387
|
46,700
|
47,550
|
+0.8
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
99.5
|
101.3
|
102.0
|
+1.8
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
7,260
|
6,744
|
6,875
|
-7.1
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
15.7
|
14.4
|
14.6
|
-8.2
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Turkeys
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production (million lbs.)
|
5,457
|
5,214
|
5,280
|
-4.4
|
|
Consumption (lbs. per capita)
|
14.8
|
14.2
|
14.1
|
-4.1
|
|
Exports (million lbs.)
|
490
|
510
|
530
|
+4.1
|
|
Proportion of production (%)
|
9.0
|
9.8
|
10.0
|
+8.8
|
Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released July 18th 2024
The July USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2024 including annual production of 5,214 million lbs. (2.330 million metric tons), down 4.4 percent from 2022. Consumption in 2024 is projected to be 14.2 lbs. (6.5 kg.) per capita, down 4.1 percent from the previous year. Export volume will increase by 4.1 percent in 2024 to 510 million lbs. (231,818 metric tons). Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2024 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, freedom from HPAI and inventories.
The 2025 forecast for turkey production is 5,280 million lbs. (2.400 million metric tons) up 1.3 percent from 2024 with per capita consumption down 0.7 percent to 14.1 lbs. (6.4 kg). Exports will be 3.9 percent higher than in 2024 to 530 million lbs. (240,910 metric tons) equivalent to 10.0 percent of production.
Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico and Canada nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations
The USDA export projection takes into account declining broiler product exports to China. For 2022, China imported 622,099 tons of broiler products valued at $1,087 million including feet at an average unit price of $1,263 per ton. Exports to China during 2023 were 34 percent lower in volume to 405,343 metric tons and 34 percent lower in value to $711 million. For the first five months of 2024 broiler volume to 4th-ranked China by quantity was down 62 percent from the corresponding months in 2023 to 78,710 metric tons. Value was down 54 percent to $154 million
Subscribers are referred to the monthly export report in this edition and update of production data and cold storage inventories of broilers and turkeys respectively posted in each end-of- month edition of CHICK-NEWS with the previous monthly data under the STATISTICS tab.