According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report CH2024-108, released on August 19th, The People’s Republic of China (China) will increase 2025 chicken production by two percent to 15.3 million metric tons. During 2025 imports are projected to fall by 33 percent to 0.3 million metric tons. Since China will export 0.67 million metric tons in 2005 the nation will be a net exporter with major destinations comprising Japan, from joint venture operations and to the Autonomous Region of Hong Kong, each to receive approximately 80,000 metric tons. China exported quantities of processed chicken to 11 Asian and E.U. Nations ranging from 5,000 to 10,000 metric tons over the first half of 2024. During the first half of 2023, Russia emerged as a recipient nation with 30,000 metric tons.
For the first half of 2024 China received 72 percent of imports from Brazil with 10 percent from the U.S. The other major supplier was Thailand with 11 percent of imports. There was a temporary pause in exports of chicken products from Brazil in July due to an alleged outbreak of Newcastle disease although exports have since resumed. In contrast the U.S. is subject to prolonged and extensive embargos as a result of HPAI in other than broiler operations. China selectively ignores World Organization of Animal Health guidelines regarding zoning or resumption of imports after expiry of the statutory 28-day period following completion of decontamination. China continues to impose unjust HPAI restrictions on exporters despite the reality that a variety of H5 and H7 strains of avian influenza are endemic, and the nation deploys vaccines of various types against avian influenza. Currently restrictions are imposed on Argentina, Turkey and Chile that previously accounted for eight percent of the share of the import market despite completion of the statutory post-decontamination period.
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Domestic consumption in China will amount to 14.93 million metric tons during 2025. Accepting a population of 1.43 billion, per capita consumption will be 10.4 kg (23 lbs.). Demand is divided among conventional white-strain broilers and either traditional yellow birds or hybrids between yellow and white-feathered stock. Although yellow-feathered birds and hybrids are still popular among the older demographic and for restaurants, broiler meat from white feathered birds are consumed in QSRs based on price, value and convenience.
Currently the national average retail price for pork, the major animal protein is $1.86/lb. compared to chicken at $1.50/lb. During the second quarter of 2024, the price of pork has increased reflecting lower availability, making chicken more affordable.
Following a Government policy decision approximately ten years ago, China has embarked on a program of producing domestic broiler breeding stock and is moving toward self-sufficiency, sacrificing a potential gain in production parameters including feed conversion and growth rate for advantages relating to security, conserving foreign exchange and national pride (or alternatively xenophobia). Ultimately based on international consultants, domestic knowledge of genetics and associated breeding technology and existing volume of production, China will soon be in a competitive position to export broiler-breeding stock to “friendly” nations in Asia and Africa.