A USDA-FAS-GAIN Report released on September 4th, predicts a 3.5 percent increase in broiler production to 1.645 million metric tons in 2025. This quantity will be supplemented by importation of 300,000 metric tons, down 6.3 percent from 2024. Approximately half of imports will in the form of mechanically deboned meat, principally supplied by Brazil. Exports are nominal at 70,000 metric tons mainly to neighboring nations. Assuming a population of 60 million, per capita consumption is 31.3 kg (69 lbs.) although due to the disparity in income consumption is substantially higher than the national average in urban areas and among higher income demographics.
During 2023 the broiler industry was impacted by HPAI with a number of breeder farms affected. Hatching eggs were imported from Brazil and Turkey with production of day-old chicks now restored.
The broiler industry in South Africa is challenged by high feed prices, power brown-outs and high labor costs and inefficiency. The U.S. and Brazil are able to land chicken into South Africa at prices lower than the cost of domestic production. Accordingly the industry is protected by antidumping duties, tariffs and contrived restrictions based on HPAI. During the first half of 2024 Brazil supplied 81 percent of imports of chicken meat mainly in the form of MDM, Argentine, eight percent and the European Union and the U.S. five percent each. Over the first half of 2024 the U.S. contribution to imports declined by 63 percent compared to the corresponding half of 2023. In 2023 South Africa was ranked 18th among importing nations from the U.S. with 44,324 metric tons shipped valued at $42.4 million with a low average unit price of $957 per metric ton.