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Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, November 2024.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the November 20th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 1.210 million eggs were set over five weeks extending from the week ending October 19th 2024 through November 16th 2024 inclusive. This was four percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the five-week period amounted to 937.8 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.7 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, down 0.1 percent from the preceding five-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.93 million chicks placed per week and 1.83 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through November 16th 2024 chick placements attained 8.70 billion, up two percent from the corresponding week in 2023.

According to the November 22nd 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs, pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during October 2024 amounted to 8.05 million, up 0.6 percent (47,000 pullet chicks) from October 2023 and 10.1 percent (1.787 million pullet chicks) more than the previous month of September 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 61.45 million on October 1st 2024, 2.0 percent (1.27 million hens) more than on October 1st 2023.

Broiler Production

As documented in the November 20th 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending November 16th 2024, 169.9 million broilers were processed at 6.49 lbs. live. This was 0.2 percent more than the 168.6 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of October 2024 and 1.9 percent more than the 166.8 million processed during the corresponding week in November 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 7,569 million, 1.3 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week in November was 845.9 million lbs. (384,510 metric tons). This was 0.7 percent less than the 852.2 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in October 2024 and 2.8 percent more than the 822.6 million lbs. during the corresponding week in November 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2024 to date RTC broiler production attained 37,455 million lbs. (17.03 million metric tons). This quantity was 0.6 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price for the week ending November 22nd 2024 was down 0.8 cents per lb. to 128.0 cents per lb. from the corresponding week in October 2024. The attached USDA figures denote average prices over three-years.

Leading QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets. Inflation is increasing consumer awareness of value with chicken benefitting at the expense of beef and pork

The USDA National benchmark prices in cents per lb. (rounded to nearest cent) are tabulated from the USDA Weekly National Chicken Report released on November 22nd 2024.

The USDA posted live-weight data for the past week ending November 16th and YTD 2024 were:-

During the week ending November 16th 2024 broilers for QSR and food service (live, 3.6 lb. to 4.3 lb.) represented 18 percent of processed volume up 5 percent from the corresponding week in October 2024.

On November 18th 2024 cold storage holdings of processed poultry other than chicken at selected centers amounted to 66,887 lbs. 2.0 percent more than the inventory of 66,226 lbs. on November 1st 2024.

October 2024 Frozen Inventory

According to the November 25th 2024 USDA Cold Storage Report, issued monthly, stocks of broiler products as of October 31st 2024 compared to October 31st 2023 showed differences with respect to the following categories:-

• Total Chicken category attained 803.6 million lbs. (365,200 metric tons) corresponding to approximately 1.1 weeks production based on recent weekly RTC output. The October 31st 2024 inventory was down 6.4 percent compared to 858,703 million lbs. (390,320 metric tons) on October 31st 2023 and up 3.8 percent from the previous month of September 2024.
• LegQuarters were down by 6.0 percent to 63.1 million lbs. compared to October 31st 2023 consistent with the data on exports. Inventory was up 11.3 percent from September 30th Given the trend in inventory of leg quarters it is evident that this category continues to be shipped in varying quantities as the principal (97 percent) chicken export product to a number of nations with Mexico the leading importer.

• The Breasts and Breast Meat category was down 3.1 percent from October 31st 2023 to 228.38 million lbs. indicating a relatively constant domestic consumer demand despite concern over inflation in the cost of protein. October 31st 2024 stocks were 2.8 percent higher than on September 30th 2024 suggesting slightly lower retail and food service demand for this category despite promotion of chicken sandwiches by QSRs in the face of higher cost for beef and a stable to increasing pattern of eat-at-home consumption.

• Total inventory of dark meat (drumsticks legs, thighs and thigh quarters but excluding leg quarters) decreased 12.9 percent from October 31st 2023 to 65.74 million lbs. This difference suggests an increase in domestic demand for lower-priced dark meat against the prevailing price of white chicken meat.

• Wings showed a 15.1 percent decrease from October 31st 2023, contributing to a stock of 54.6 million lbs. This category was 4.2 percent higher compared to September 30th Movement in stock over the past 12 months has demonstrated growth in demand for this category despite competition from “boneless wings.” Increased consumption traditionally associated with significant sports events including the College Bowl and Super Bowl reduced the volumes of storage in January and February 2024. The draw down from March Madness was evident in the May Report. The progressive increase in unit price during 2024 to date will plateau in 2025 due to consumer fatigue and competition from competing protein snacks despite continued interest in professional and collegiate football.

• The inventory of Paws and Feet was 19.9 percent higher than on October 31st 2023 to 34.8 million lbs. and inventory was 4.2 percent higher than on September 30th Prior to the April 2020 Phase-1 Trade Agreement approximately half of the shipments of paws and feet destined for Hong Kong were landed and transshipped to the Mainland, a trend that is re-emerging. During 2023, 405,313 metric tons of U.S. broiler products were shipped to China, valued at $711,172 with an average unit value of $1,755 per metric ton. A breakdown of product categories and prices provided by USAPEEC confirmed that Paws and Feet represented 68.5 percent of volume and 73.1 percent of value with a unit price of $1,871 per metric ton.
• The Other category comprising 339.5 million lbs. on October 31st 2024 was down 6.9 percent from October 31st 2023 but represented a substantial 42.2 percent of inventory. The high proportion of the Other category suggests further classification or re-allocation by USDA to the designated major categories.

October Broiler 2024 Production

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on November 25th 2024 covered October 2024 comprising 23 working days, one more than October 2023. The following values were documented for the month:-

• A total of 861.5 million broilers were processed in October 2024, down 36.9 million or 4.5 percent from October 2023;
• Total live weight in October 2024 was 5,769 million lbs., up 24.3 million lbs. or 4.2 percent from October 2023;
• Unit live weight in October 2024 was 6.70 lbs., unchanged from October 2023.
• RTC in October 2024 attained 4,370 million lbs., up 192.65 million lbs. or 4.6 percent from October 2023.
• WOG yield in October 2024 was 75.8 percent, down from 75.6 percent in October 2023.
• The proportion marketed as chilled in October 2024 comprised 93.3 percent of RTC output compared to 93.0 percent in October 2023.
• Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.17 percent during October 2024 down from 0.18 percent in October 2023.
• Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.44 percent during October 2024 compared to 0.40 percent in October 2023.

Comments

For 2023 exports of broiler parts and feet combined attained a volume of 3,635,178 metric tons (3,794,328 metric tons in 2022) with a value of $4,739 million ($5,217 million in 2022). Unit value decreased 5.2 percent from 2022 to $1,304 per metric ton (including feet) from $1,375 per metric ton.

Mexico has recognized the OIE principle of regionalization after intensive negotiations between SENASICA and U.S. counterpart, the USDA-APHIS assisted by USAPEEC. Provided importing nations adhere to OIE guidelines on regionalization, localized outbreaks of avian influenza and Newcastle disease will affect exports from states with outbreaks in commercial flocks. The response of China, Japan and some other nations is more predictable with bans placed on a statewide basis. The response by China to outbreaks is influenced more by self-interest than considerations of scientific fact or international trade obligations. Other importing nations have confined restrictions to counties following the WOAH principle of regionalization. The challenge facing exporting nations will be to gain acceptance for controlled vaccination against HPAI in specific industry sectors and regions with appropriate surveillance and certification to the satisfaction of importing nations.

Collectively our NAFTA/USMCA neighbors imported broiler products to the value of $1,175 million in 2021, $1,256 million in 2022 stabilizing in 2023 at $1,246 million.

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 46.3 percent of shipments during January-September 2024. The top ten importers comprised 65.3 percent of the total volume reflecting concentration among the significant importing nations.

The USDA October projection for RTC broiler production for 2024 will be 47,850 million lbs. with a per capita consumption of 103.1 lbs. Exports amounting to 6,780 million lbs. will represent 14.2 percent of production.