Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, December 27th 2024
Poult Production and Placement:
The December 13th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 24.66 million eggs in incubators on December 1st 2024 compared to 25.35 million eggs on December 1st 2023* The December 2024 set was down 0.68 million eggs (2.7 percent) from December 2023 and 0.19 million eggs (0.8 percent) from than the previous month of November 2024.
A total of 21.02 million poults were hatched during November 2024 down 0.65 million poults (3.0 percent) compared to 21.67 million in November 2023*. The November 2024 hatch was almost unchanged (down 4,000 poults) from the previous month of October.
A total of 19.27 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in November 2024, compared to 19.94 million in November 2023*. The November 2024 placement was 0.67 million poults (3.4 percent) less than in October 2023. The November placement was 0.11 million higher than the previous month of October. This data confirms disposal of 1.75 million poults during the month. Approximately 8.3 percent of the November 2024 hatch was not placed.
For the twelve-month period December 2023 through November 2024 inclusive, 252.03 million poults were hatched and 235.42 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 16.61 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.6 percent of all poults hatched.
* USDA revision from previous monthly report.
Turkey Production:
The December 20th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-
- For the processing week ending December 14th 2024, 1.393 million hens were processed at 17.7 lbs. live. This was 37.9 percent less than the 2.242 million hens processed during the corresponding week in November 2024 and 21.1 percent more than the 1.765 million processed during the corresponding week in December 2023. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 81.1 million, 11.3 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 19.83 million lbs. (9,012 metric tons). This quantity was 29.8 percent less than the 28.25 million lbs. for corresponding week in November 2024 and 9.7 percent less than the 21.97 million lbs. during the corresponding week in December 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC hen production attained 1,111 million lbs. (504,836 metric tons). This quantity is 11.1 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- For the processing week ending December 14th 2024, 1.974 million toms were processed at 43.4 lbs. live. This was 4.6 percent less than the 2.070 million toms processed during the corresponding week in November 2024 and 8.1 percent less than the 2.148 million during the corresponding week in December 2023. Year-to-date 99.75 million toms have been processed, 0.9 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 69.0 million lbs. (31,356 metric tons). This quantity was 0.5 percent less than the 72.7 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in November 2024 and 9.5 percent less than the 76.2 million lbs. during the corresponding week in December 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC tom production attained 3,559 million lbs. (1.618 million metric tons). This quantity is less than 0.1 percent more than the corresponding period in 2023.
Wholesale Prices
The National average frozen hen price (8 to 16 lbs.) for conventional birds during the week ending December 20th was 104.0 cents per lb., 7.7 cents per lb. above than the previous month in 2024 and down 20 cents per lb. from the three-year average of approximately 124 cents per lb. The following prices rounded to the nearest cent were documented in the new format report for domestic and export trading for December 2024 as reported on December 20th:-
|
Product
|
cents per lb.
|
Change from previous Month (%)
|
|
Frozen hens whole Grade A (8-16 lb)
|
104
|
+8.3
|
|
Frozen toms whole Grade A (16-24 lb)
|
105
|
+11.7
|
|
Thighs (bone in)
|
Not listed
|
-
|
|
Necks (toms, export)
|
104
|
+7.7
|
|
Breasts 4-8 lb. (fresh)
|
Not listed
|
-35.8
|
|
Breasts B/S (toms, fresh)
|
165
|
-
|
|
Drums (toms)
|
114
|
+4.6
|
|
Wings (full-cut tom)
|
112
|
+4.7
|
|
Tenderloins
|
218
|
+67.6
|
|
Thigh Meat (skin and boneless)
|
191
|
+3.2
|
|
Mechanically Separated (domestic)
(export)
|
52
Not listed
|
+8.3
-
|
Inventories:
On December 16th 2024 cold storage holdings at selected centers amounted to 66,385 lbs., 2.2 percent less than the inventory of 64,979 lbs. on December 1st 2024.
November Frozen Inventory
The December 23rd edition of the USDA Cold Storage Report issued monthly, documented a total turkey stock of 203.0 million lbs. (92,249 metric tons) on November 30th 2024, equivalent to 1.1 week of normal seasonal RTE combined production of toms and hens and down less than 0.1 percent compared to the inventory on November 30th 2023. The November 30th 2024 value was 34.1 percent below the October 31st 2024 inventory. This change is consistent with seasonal demand.
- The Whole Turkey category of 49,320 million lbs. representing 24.3 percent of total storage on November 30th 2024 was 63.5 percent lower than the adjusted inventory for the previous month and 9.0 percent lower than on November 30th 2023.
- Tom carcasses in storage decreased by 31.5 percent from November 30th 2023 to 22.9 million lbs. on November 30th 2024. Tom carcasses decreased 67.4 percent during November 2024 compared to the previous month of October 2024 responding to seasonal demand.
- Hen carcasses in storage decreased by 27.6 percent from November 30th 2023 to 26.4 million lbs. on November 30th 2024. Hen carcasses decreased 60.9 percent during November 2024 compared to the previous month of October 2024 attributed to seasonal demand.
- Breasts in storage increased 7.8 percent from November 30th 2023 to 60.2 million lbs. on November 30th 2024 but inventory was down 4.5 percent from the previous month of October 2024.
- The “Other” (12.9 percent of inventory) and “Unclassified” (29.2 percent) categories collectively amounted to 85,514 million lbs. or 42.1 percent of inventory on November 30th 2024. The magnitude of these two non-specified categories suggests that the USDA should attempt to classify product more accurately as to specific product.
November 2024 Production
According to the USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on December 23rd covering November 2024, comprised 22 working days, one more than November 2023. The following values were documented:-
- During November 2024, 16.28 million young turkeys were processed, 2.14 million birds or 11.6 percent less than November 2023;
- Total live weight in November 2024 attained 492.89 million lbs., 69.80 million lbs. or 12.4 percent less than November 2023;
- Average live weight in November 2024 was 30.28 lbs., down 0.27 lb. or 0.9 percent compared to November 2023;
- RTC in November 2024 attained 391.92 million lbs., down 54.64 million lbs., or 12.2 percent from November 2023;
- Yield in November 2024 was 79.5 percent compared to 79.4 percent in November 2023.
- The proportion of frozen product in November 2024 attained 37.0 percent of total RTC compared to 35.0 percent in November 2023;
- During November 2024 ante-mortem condemnation attained 0.29 percent of live weight, compared to 0.26 percent in November 2023;
- During November 2024, 1.52 percent of RTC weight was condemned compared to 1.30 percent in November 2023.
Comments:
The ratio of hens to toms slaughtered attained 1.0 to 1.2, year-to-date. On an RTC basis the ratio was 1.0 to 3.2.
Export data for turkey products during 2023 and the provisional production and consumption data for 2024 are posted under the STATISTICS tab. During 2023 volume of turkey exports attained 221,920 metric tons up 20.2 percent from the corresponding months in 2023. Value was down 2.0 percent to $628 million. Unit value was down 18.5 percent to $2,829 per metric ton denoting export of lower priced products. Over January to September 2024 exports of turkey products attained 164,124 metric tons valued at $491 million up respectively 4.9 and 8.6 percent from the corresponding months in 2023.
From January 2022 through late-December 2023 losses of turkeys depleted as a result of HPAI attained approximately 14.1 million birds in eight states. This volume is equivalent to the combined production of toms and hens over 3.8 weeks with a nominal average production of 3.7 million harvested birds per week. Incident cases continued in 2024 with cumulative depletion of approximately 3.0 million birds to date with the most recent losses in California from mid-October to date. Waterfowl are migrating along all four U.S. flyways with birds in the Pacific, Central and Mississippi routes disseminating H5N1 virus over areas with concentrations of turkey production. This presumes local aggregation of non-migratory waterfowl in addition to migratory and resident birds that are reservoirs and spreaders of virus as denoted by cases in backyard flocks since August.
USDA Annual Production
The USDA Turkeys Raised report issued September 27th, quantified the 2023-2024 turkey production by state as:-
“Production in the United States during 2024 is forecast at 205 million, down 6 percent from the number raised during 2023. The top six states will account for 67 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2024.
- Minnesota, at 33.5 million turkeys, down 13 percent from the previous year.
- North Carolina to produce 27.5 million turkeys, down 5 percent from a year ago.
- Arkansas to produce 25.0 million turkeys, down 7 percent from last year.
- Indiana to produce 20.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year.
- Missouri to produce 15.5 million turkeys, down 9 percent from last year.
- Virginia will be down one percent from the previous year to15.4 million turkeys”.