Monthly Turkey Production and Prices, October 26th 2024
Poult Production and Placement:
The October 16th 2024 edition of the USDA Turkey Hatchery Report, issued monthly, documented 24.46 million eggs in incubators on October 1st 2024 compared to 27.01 million eggs on October 1st 2023* The October 2024 set was down 2.55 million eggs (9.5 percent) from October 2023 and 0.54 million eggs (2.2 percent) less than the previous month of September 2024.
A total of 20.39 million poults were hatched during September 2024 down 1.18 million poults (5.5 percent) compared to 21.57 million in September 2023*. The September 2024 hatch was down 0.30 million poults (1.5 percent) from the previous month of August.
A total of 18.19 million poults were placed on farms in the U.S. in September 2024, compared to 19.09 million in September 2023*. The September 2024 placement was 0.91 million poults (4.7 percent) less than in August 2024. This data confirms disposal of 2.20 million poults during the month. Approximately 12.1 percent of the September 2024 hatch was not placed.
For the twelve-month period October 2023 through September 2024 inclusive, 254.49 million poults were hatched and 237.85 million were placed. This confirms disposal of 16.64 million poults over the 12-month period, corresponding to 6.5 percent of all poults hatched.
* USDA revision from previous monthly report.
Turkey Production:
The October 17th 2024 edition of the Turkey Market News Reports documented the following provisional data for turkeys slaughtered under Federal inspection:-
- For the processing week ending October 16th 2024, 1.380 million hens were processed at 17.7 lbs. live. This was 8.7 percent less than the 1.511 million hens processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 35.0 percent less than the 2.122 million processed during the corresponding week in October 2023. Hen slaughter year-to-date has attained 64.5 million, 12.5 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- Ready to cook (RTC) weight for hens over the most recent week was 19.70 million lbs. (8,953 metric tons). This quantity was 7.4 percent less than the 21.27 million lbs. for corresponding week in September 2024 and 31.1 percent less than the 28.09 million lbs. during the corresponding week in October 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC hen production attained 884.1 million lbs. (401,864 metric tons). This quantity is 13.0 percent less than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- For the processing week ending September 12th 2024, 2.247 million toms were processed at 44.0 lbs. live. This was 2.0 percent more than the 2.203 million toms processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 10.4 percent more than the 2.035 million during the corresponding week in October 2023. Year-to-date 82.38 million toms have been processed, 0.6 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.
- Ready to cook (RTC) weight for toms during the most recent week was 79.7 million lbs. (36,210 metric tons). This quantity was 3.4 percent more than the 75.6 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in September 2024 and 8.8 percent less than the 69.4 million lbs. during the corresponding week in September 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 80.5 percent. For 2024 to date RTC tom production attained 2,942 million lbs. (1.337 million metric tons). This quantity is 1.3 percent more than the corresponding period in 2023.
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Wholesale Prices
The National average frozen hen price (8 to 16 lbs.) for conventional birds during the week ending September 27th was 96.9 cents per lb., 27.1 cents per lb. lower than the previous month in 2024 and down 48 cents per lb. from the three-year average of approximately 145 cents per lb. The following prices rounded to the nearest cent were documented in the new format report for domestic and export trading for September 2024 as reported on October 4th:-
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Product
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cents per lb.
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Change from previous Month (%)
|
|
Frozen hens whole Grade A (8-16 lb)
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97
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+4.3
|
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Frozen toms whole Grade A (16-24 lb)
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N/A
|
-
|
|
Thighs (bone in)
|
137
|
+4.6
|
|
Necks (toms, export)
|
65
|
+12.1
|
|
Breasts 4-8 lb. (fresh)
|
229
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+6.5
|
|
Breasts B/S (toms, fresh)
|
205
|
-7.7
|
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Drums (toms)
|
99
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+6.5
|
|
Wings (full-cut tom)
|
105
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+1.0
|
|
Tenderloins
|
128
|
-3.2
|
|
Thigh Meat (skin and boneless)
|
166
|
-0.6
|
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Mechanically Separated (domestic)
(export)
|
48
47
|
+11.6
-
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Inventories:
On October 14th 2024 cold storage holdings at selected centers amounted to 97,738 lbs., 2.9 percent less than the inventory of 100,631 lbs. on October 1st 2024.
September Frozen Inventory
The October th edition of the USDA Cold Storage Report issued monthly, documented a total turkey stock of 477.3 million lbs. (194,202 metric tons) on September 30th 2024, equivalent to 2.3 weeks of normal seasonal RTE combined production of toms and hens and up 1.4 percent compared to the inventory on September 30th 2023. The September 30th 2024 value was 5.7 percent below the August 30th 2024 inventory. This change is consistent with seasonal demand.
- The Whole Turkey category of 228.20 million lbs. representing 53.4 percent of total storage on September 30th 2024 was 6.9 percent lower than the adjusted inventory for the previous month and 0.4 percent lower than on September 30th
- Tom carcasses in storage increased by 1.5 percent from September 30th 2023 to 155.2 million lbs. on September 30th Tom carcasses increased 3.6 percent during September 2024 compared to the previous month of august 2023.
- Hen carcasses in storage decreased by 4.4 percent from August 31st 2023 to 106.6 million lbs. on August 31st Hen carcasses decreased 11.4 percent during September 2024 compared to the previous month of August 2024.
- Breasts in storage increased 6.2 percent from September 30th 2023 to 74.8 million lbs. on September 30th 2024 but inventory was down 7.0 percent from the previous month of August 2024.
- The “Other” (7.9 percent of inventory) and “Unclassified” (19.1 percent) categories collectively amounted to 115,964 million lbs. or 27.1 percent of inventory on September 30th The magnitude of these two non-specified categories suggests that the USDA should attempt to classify product more accurately as to specific product.
September 2024 Production
According to the USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on October 24th covering, September 2024, comprised 21 working days, The same as September 2023. The following values were documented:-
- During September 2024, 15.55 million young turkeys were processed, 1.50 million birds or 8.8 percent less than in September 2023;
- Total live weight in September 2024 attained 512.95 million lbs., 25.27 million lbs. or 4.7 percent less than in September 2023;
- Average live weight in September 2024 was 32.99 lbs., up 1.42 lb. or 4.5 percent compared to September 2023;
- RTC in September 2024 attained 407.55 million lbs., down 20.40 million lbs., or 4.8 percent from September 2023;
- Yield in September 2024 was 79.5 percent compared to 79.4 percent in September 2023.
- The proportion of frozen product in September 2024 attained 36.7 percent of total RTC compared to 36.3 percent in September 2023;
- During September 2024 ante-mortem condemnation attained 0.32 percent of live weight, compared to 0.39 percent in September 2023;
- During September 2024, 1.44 percent of RTC weight was condemned compared to 1.27 percent in September 2023.
Comments:
The ratio of hens to toms slaughtered attained 1.0 to 1.3, year-to-date. On an RTC basis the ratio was 1.0 to 3.3.
Export data for turkey products during 2023 and the provisional production and consumption data for 2024 are posted under the STATISTICS tab. During 2023 volume of turkey exports attained 221,920 metric tons up 20.2 percent from the corresponding months in 2023. Value was down 2.0 percent to $628 million. Unit value was down 18.5 percent to $2,829 per metric ton denoting export of lower priced products.
From January 2022 through late-December 2023 losses of turkeys depleted as a result of HPAI attained approximately 14.1 million birds in eight states. This volume is equivalent to the combined production of toms and hens over 3.8 weeks with a nominal average production of 3.7 million harvested birds per week. Incident cases continued in 2024 with cumulative depletion of approximately 1.4 million birds to date with the most recent losses in California during mid-October. Migratory waterfowl have commenced their southward migration along all four U.S. flyways over areas with concentrations of turkey production. This presumes local aggregation of non-migratory waterfowl in addition to migratory and resident birds that are reservoirs and disseminators of virus as denoted by cases in backyard flocks since August and in live markets in Florida.
USDA Annual Production
The USDA Turkeys Raised report quantified the 2023-2024 turkey production by state as:-
“Production in the United States during 2024 is forecasted at 205 million, down 6 percent from the number raised during 2023. The top six states will account for 67 percent of the turkeys produced in the United States during 2024.
- Minnesota, at 33.5 million turkeys, down 13 percent from the previous year.
- North Carolina produced 27.5 million turkeys, down 5 percent from a year ago.
- Arkansas produced 25.0 million turkeys, down 7 percent from last year.
- Indiana produced 20.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year.
- Missouri produced 15.5 million turkeys, down 9 percent from last year.
- Virginia is down 1 percent from the previous year at 15.4 million turkeys”.