Poultry Industry News, Comments & More

Monthly Broiler Production and Prices, October 26th 2024.

Broiler Chick Placements.

According to the October 18th 2024 USDA Broiler Hatchery Reports, 961.6 million eggs were set over four weeks extending from the week ending September 21st 2024 through October 12th 2024 inclusive. This was two percent higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Total chick placements for the U.S. over the four-week period amounted to 752.9 million chicks. Claimed hatchability for the period averaged 79.6 percent for eggs set three weeks earlier, down 0.1 percent from the preceding five-week period. Each 1.0 percent change in hatchability represents approximately 1.93 million chicks placed per week and 1.83 million broilers processed, assuming five percent culls and mortality and with the current range of weekly settings.

Cumulative chick placements for the period January 7th through December 30th 2023 amounted to 9.67 billion chicks. For January 6th through October 12th 2024 chick placements attained 7.76 billion, up one percent from the corresponding week in 2023.

According to the October 21st 2024 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs, pullet breeder chicks hatched and intended for U.S. placement during September 2024 amounted to 9.73 million, up 9.2 percent (819,000 pullet chicks) from September 2023 and 11.8 percent (1.03 million pullet chicks) more than the previous month of August 2024. Broiler breeder hen complement attained 61.53 million on October 1st 2024, 1.9 percent (1.2 million hens) more than on October 1st 2023.

Broiler Production

As documented in the October 17th 2024 USDA Broiler Market News Reports for the processing week ending October 12th 2024, 168.6 million broilers were processed at 6.55 lbs. live. This was 1.0 percent less than the 170.3 million broilers processed during the corresponding week in the previous month of September 2024 and 1.4 percent more than the 166.3 million processed during the corresponding week in October 2023. Broilers processed in 2024 to date amounted to 6,717 million, 1.6 percent lower than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Ready to cook (RTC) weight for the most recent week in October was 852.2 million lbs. (387,373 metric tons). This was 0.7 percent more than the 846.6 million lbs. processed during the corresponding week in August 2024 and 3.0 percent more than the 839.0 million lbs. during the corresponding week in October 2023. Dressing percentage was a nominal 76.0 percent. For 2024 to date RTC broiler production attained 33,175 million lbs. (15.08 million metric tons). This quantity was 0.4 percent more than for the corresponding period in 2023.

Broiler Prices

The USDA National Composite Weighted Wholesale price for the week ending October 18th 2024 was up 1.5 cents per lb. to 128.8 cents per lb. from the corresponding week in September 2024. The attached USDA figures denote average prices over three-years.

Leading QSRs are using increasing quantities of breast meat for sandwiches, strips and nuggets. Inflation is increasing consumer awareness of value with chicken benefitting at the expense of beef and pork

The USDA National benchmark prices in cents per lb. (rounded to nearest cent) are tabulated from the USDA Weekly National Chicken Report released on October 18th 2024.

The USDA posted live-weight data for the past week ending October 12th and YTD 2024 were:-

During the week ending September 20th 2024 broilers for QSR and food service (live, 3.6 lb. to 4.3 lb.) represented 13 percent of processed volume unchanged from the corresponding week in September 2024.

On October 14th 2024 cold storage holdings of processed poultry other than chicken at selected centers amounted to 66,791 lbs. 2.9 percent more than the inventory of 64,895 lbs. on October 1st 2024.

September 2024 Frozen Inventory

According to the October 25th 2024 USDA Cold Storage Report, issued monthly, stocks of broiler products as of September 30th 2024 compared to September 30th 2023 showed differences with respect to the following categories:-

• Total Chicken category attained 773.7 million lbs. (351,673 metric tons) corresponding to approximately 1.1 weeks production based on recent weekly RTC output. The September 30th 2024 inventory was down 6.9 percent compared to 831,393 million lbs. (377,916 metric tons) on September 30th 2023 and up 0.6 percent from the previous month of August 2024.
• LegQuarters were down by 9.6 percent to 86.7 million lbs. compared to September 30th 2023 consistent with the data on exports. Inventory was down 9.4 percent from August 30th Given the trend in inventory of leg quarters it is evident that this category continues to be shipped in varying quantities as the principal (97 percent) chicken export product to a number of nations with Mexico the leading importer.

• The Breasts and Breast Meat category was down 3.8 percent from September 30th 2023 to 221.6 million lbs. indicating a relatively constant domestic consumer demand despite concern over inflation in the cost of protein. September 30th 2024 stocks were 7.9 percent higher than on August 30th 2024 suggesting slightly lower retail and food service demand for this category despite promotion of chicken sandwiches by QSRs in the face of a stable to decreasing pattern of eat-at-home consumption.

• Total inventory of dark meat (drumsticks legs, thighs and thigh quarters but excluding leg quarters) decreased 9.5 percent from September 30th 2023 to 62.73 million lbs. This difference suggests an increase in domestic demand for lower-priced dark meat against the prevailing price of white chicken meat.

• Wings showed a 20.9 percent decrease from September 30t 2023, contributing to a stock of 51.7 million lbs. This category was 0.1 percent higher compared to August 30th Movement in stock over the past 12 months has demonstrated growth in demand for this category despite competition from “boneless wings.” Increased consumption traditionally associated with significant sports events including the College Bowl and Super Bowl reduced the volumes of storage in January and February 2024. The draw down from March Madness was evident in the May Report. The progressive increase in unit price during 2023 will continue through 2024 with the advent of professional and collegiate football.

• The inventory of Paws and Feet was 24.1 percent higher than on September 30th 2023 to 33.4 million lbs. and inventory was 6.3 percent higher than on August 30th Prior to the April 2020 Phase-1 Trade Agreement approximately half of the shipments of paws and feet destined for Hong Kong were landed and transshipped to the Mainland, a trend that is re-emerging. During 2023, 405,313 metric tons of U.S. broiler products were shipped to China, valued at $711,172 with an average unit value of $1,755 per metric ton. A breakdown of product categories and prices provided by USAPEEC confirmed that Paws and Feet represented 68.5 percent of volume and 73.1 percent of value with a unit price of $1,871 per metric ton.
• The Other category comprising 329.0 million lbs. on September 30th 2024 was down 6.4 percent from September 30th 2023 but represented a substantial 42.5 percent of inventory. The high proportion in the Other category suggests further classification or re-allocation by USDA to the designated major categories.

September Broiler 2024 Production

The USDA Poultry Slaughter Report released on October 31st 2024 covered September 2024 comprising 21 working days, The same as September 2023. The following values were documented for the month:-

• A total of 769.7 million broilers were processed in September 2024, up 8.3 million or 10.8 percent from September 2023;
• Total live weight in September 2024 was 5,139 million lbs., up 1.04 million lbs. or 2.1 percent from September 2023;
• Unit live weight in September 2024 was 6.68 lbs., 0.07 lb. or 1.1 percent higher than September 2023.
• RTC in September 2024 attained 3,890 million lbs., up 83.3 million lbs. or 2.2 percent from September 2023.
• WOG yield in September 2024 was 75.7 percent, down from 75.6 percent in 2023.
• The proportion marketed as chilled in September 2024 comprised 93.2 percent of RTC output unchanged from September 2023.
• Ante-mortem condemnation as a proportion of live weight attained 0.17 percent during September 2024 down from 0.19 percent in September 2023.
• Post-mortem condemnations as a proportion of processed mass corresponded to 0.44 percent during September 2024 compared to 0.42 percent in September 2023.

Comments

For 2023 exports of broiler parts and feet combined attained a volume of 3,635,178 metric tons (3,794,328 metric tons in 2022) with a value of $4,739 million ($5,217 million in 2022). Unit value decreased 5.2 percent from 2022 to $1,304 per metric ton (including feet) from $1,375 per metric ton.

Mexico has recognized the OIE principle of regionalization after intensive negotiations between SENASICA and U.S. counterpart, the USDA-APHIS assisted by USAPEEC. Provided importing nations adhere to OIE guidelines on regionalization, localized outbreaks of avian influenza and Newcastle disease will affect exports from states with outbreaks in commercial flocks. The response of China, Japan and some other nations is more predictable with bans placed on a statewide basis. The response by China to outbreaks is influenced more by self-interest than considerations of scientific fact or international trade obligations. Other importing nations have confined restrictions to counties following the WOAH principle of regionalization. The challenge facing exporting nations will be to gain acceptance for controlled vaccination against HPAI in specific industry sectors and regions with appropriate surveillance and certification to the satisfaction of importing nations.

Collectively our NAFTA/USMCA neighbors imported broiler products to the value of $1,175 million in 2021, $1,256 million in 2022 stabilizing in 2023 at $1,246 million.

The top five importers of broiler meat represented 46.1 percent of shipments during January-August 2024. The top ten importers comprised 64.7 percent of the total volume reflecting concentration among the significant importing nations.

The USDA October USDA projection for RTC broiler production for 2024 will be 47,084 million lbs. with a per capita consumption of 102.1 lbs. Exports amounting to 6,721 million lbs. will represent 14.3 percent of production.